If the polls can disagree this much, they're obviously HIGHLY prone to error. Why do we even pay attention to them?
Perhaps others are following my lead. I don't miss an opportunity to take a poll. And then I *LIE*. Not just a little, but egregiously, sometimes going Fallwell-right and other times Manson-left in my responses. Ideally, the pollster gives me a chance to swing both ways (a phrase you won't often hear me saying!) in the same poll.
Poll results always come with a certain margin of error. 2%. 3%. Something like that. But that margin is intended to cover the chance that the poll was too small to accurately reflect the views of the entire population. The more poeple you interview, the more accurate a poll should be. But margin-of-error isn't intended to cover the chance that respondents are intentionally lying. After all, if EVERYONE lied, the poll would be wrong even if it included all 300 million of us.
That's my strategy. I wish others would do the same.
BTW, am I imagining it, or is Obummer starting to look really jaundiced? Maybe he needs to have his liver checked.
March 14, 2012
Obama is up in the polls -- or maybe down
By David Lauter
Los Angeles Times
President Barack Obama listens as British Prime Minister David Cameron gestures while speaking at University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
Reporting from Washington —
President Obama has moved up in the latest polls – or is that down?
Depends which poll. This week has seen four new public surveys from highly regarded, nonpartisan polling organizations – two one way, two the other. Two other polls show not much change at all.
The latest numbers come from the Pew Research Center and show Obama’s job approval – probably the most important political statistic at this time of year – at 50%, as against 41% disapproving. That’s a big boost – the nine-point favorable margin compares with a four-point margin last month and a four-point deficit in January. The poll, of 1,503 adults, including 1,188 registered voters, was taken Wednesday-Sunday, March 7-11.
The survey also showed 59% of voters -- including almost a third of Republican voters -- saying they expected to see Obama win reelection.
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other polls taken over roughly the same period, one by the Washington Post and ABC News and the other by the New York Times and CBS News, showed the opposite trend – Obama’s position deteriorating. Pollsters for the organizations attributed the declines to the impact of high gasoline prices and to overall volatility in the race.
The New York Times/CBS poll was the most different from the others, showing Obama’s approval badly underwater, at 41%-47%. Last month, the same poll showed his approval at 50%-43%.
More: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-among-pollsters-no-consensus-on-obama-approval-rating-20120313,0,6543569.story
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