Yes, Obama Is Winning — For Now
By Jonathan Chait
(a sliver, which I found interesting discussing Gallup Vs Rasmussen)
Conservatives making the sunny-side-up argument have tended recently to rely solely on the Gallup poll in measuring Obama. Why is that? Because Gallup, for whatever reason, has tended to measure Obama lower than other polls this cycle. Gallup tends to be a handy measuring device because it's old, which allows for easy historical comparisons. But, for whatever reason, its results have strayed from the pack. Four years ago, Rasmussen was the go-to poll for conservative Pollyanna let's-pretend-there's-only-one-poll analysis. This year Gallup has filled that role.
It’s hard to say why this is. It certainly doesn’t mean Gallup is wrong. But the best way to draw an accurate picture of a race is to consider all the polling, or at least all the good polling. Picking out the source that gives you the best number is a handy way to slip one past your audience, but it’s not a good way to draw an accurate picture. Yet a huge proportion of the punditry making the case for being bearish on Obama — some of it being done by straight news reporters, not just conservative pundits — relies on the simple device of citing only Gallup and ignoring its outlier status.
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/03/yes-obama-is-winningfor-now.html
DO SOMETHING!
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