I feel for Ann Romney, she didn't want to go through this again, especially like this...
PPP poll in Arizona: Romney 36, Santorum 33
By MAGGIE HABERMAN |
2/20/12 12:25 PM EST
PPP reports its latest numbers from Arizona:
The Republican race for President in Arizona looks like a close one, with Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum only 36-33. Newt Gingrich is third at 16% and Ron Paul fourth at 9%.
Santorum is better liked by Arizona Republicans than Romney, but the gap isn't as wide as we're finding in a lot of other states. Santorum's at +34 (61/27), while Romney's at +24 (58/34).
One thing to keep an eye on over the next week is whether Newt Gingrich can hold his support. 16% is pretty good for him compared to what we're finding other places right now, but only 46% of his voters say they're solidly committed to him. 40% of his supporters say that Santorum is their second choice, compared to only 25% for Romney. If Gingrich's supporters see he's not viable and decide to jump ship the race could get even closer.
Santorum and Romney are both generally winning the same groups we find them winning in Michigan and nationally right now. The reason Romney's leading in Arizona but trailing in those other places is that he's at least staying competitive with the groups he tends to be weaker with. For instance he's only down by 11 points with Tea Party voters, 43-32. He's only down 13 with those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' 44-31. And he's down just 18 with Evangelicals, 45-27. Those are all groups he's losing by more than 25 points in Michigan right now.
Romney's up by good sized margins in Arizona with seniors (41-32), Hispanics (41-30), women (39-31), 'somewhat conservative' voters (43-29), and moderates (39-22). It's kind of a given at this point that Romney will take moderates and Santorum 'very conservative' voters. The 'somewhat conservative' ones are really the swing voters of the GOP electorate and they're leaning towards Romney in both Arizona and Michigan right now.
Arizona is a state where Santorum has barely expended any resources. But it's also a state where the GOP electorate is fairly conservative, giving Santorum an opening. Romney remains favored there, but as the poll suggests, it could be a close one.
Also, the poll suggests that John McCain's endorsement hasn't been much of a boon to Romney, but that Sheriff Joe Arpaio could be, as could Gov. Jan Brewer. And 44 percent of voters say they may chance their minds.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/
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