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Re: So in sum*

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Wed, 08 Feb 12 9:41 PM | 79 view(s)
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Msg. 06628 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 06627 by faul)

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Hi doma,

Far as I know, the Treasury doesn't issue and has never issued its instruments at a negative coupon (the interest rate on the bill, note or bond).

This appears to me to be about buyers being prepared to pay a premium for Treasury bills which, at par, pay a rate of interest above zero. This advisory group is saying that the Treasury should let them do so.

No idea why banks would buy at these prices. Perhaps it has something to do with their liquidity needs. Or the fact they operate overseas and are trying to escape the risks of their own currency (eg the euro). Otherwise, they would be buying mattresses and stuffing them with cash. At any rate, this seems to be about the buy side (the bidding bankers) and not the sell side (the Treasury) and to reflect the fact of real interest rates in a deflationary economy.

I agree that real interest rates can end up being negative. But that's a different thing from what I was saying. Indeed, it's the heart of the issue. QE also contributes to the devaluation of money. This helps the economy combat the issues of deflation. And these issues are partly caused by the existence of the zero lower bound.

Mattress stuffing makes more sense than investing when real interest rates are below zero. So a deflationary environment can create its own spiral of catastrophe. But if the value of saving money also declines, investing makes better sense. Perhaps this helps explain the improved jobs numbers.

"He also noted that bid-to-cover ratios remained at healthy levels for all Treasury securities, with particularly high demand for 4-week bills. The elevated bid-to-cover ratios in 4-week bill auctions in late December were related to the rule that bounds bill auction stop-out rates at zero. The question was asked if it made sense for Treasury to permit bids and awards at negative interest rates in marketable Treasury bill auctions. DAS Rutherford noted that there were operational issues associated with such a rule change, but that the hurdles were not insurmountable. It was the unanimous view of the committee that Treasury should modify auction regulations to permit negative rate bidding and awards in Treasury bill auctions as soon as feasible. Rutherford noted that any decision on this policy change would likely be made at the May refunding."

Re FBI and gold bugs: can you cite the FBI source?


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: So in sum
By: faul
in ALEA
Wed, 08 Feb 12 8:56 PM
Msg. 06627 of 54959

Alea.....afraid there is such a thing as negative rates.

You will be paying the government & banks an interest
rate for them to keep your money or buy their bonds...
Banks are already charging multi million dollar account
customers a negative rate.....

Oh & the FBI have now said that people who believe that the
country should return to a gold standard are potential
terrorists.......

You make take negative interest rates & declaration of Gold
Bugs as terrorists as a healthy dollar signal........i don't.

Treasury Ponders Negative Interest Rates
By ANNIE LOWREY
A curious tidbit from a Treasury release this morning:

The question was asked if it made sense for Treasury to permit bids and awards at negative interest rates in marketable Treasury bill auctions. [A Treasury employee] noted that there were operational issues associated with such a rule change, but that the hurdles were not insurmountable. It was the unanimous view of the committee that Treasury should modify auction regulations to permit negative rate bidding and awards in Treasury bill auctions as soon as feasible.
Put simply, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, composed mostly of Wall Street types, is urging that investors be allowed to pay the government for the privilege of lending it money. For example, an investor would be able to bid and then pay the government $101 for a $100 Treasury bill.

It sounds a bit crazy. After all, a dollar bill is a perfect substitute for a zero-interest Treasury security. But Treasury bills have occasionally traded in the secondary market at negative yields, most recently in December. And at last month’s auction of 10-year Treasury inflation-protected bonds, investors accepted a real yield of negative 0.046 percent. If there is inflation over the period, however, those investors will get back more dollars than they invested. Those who buy a normal Treasury bill at a negative rate, on the other hand, would be assured of getting back less than they paid for it — unless they sell it to someone else for more, of course.

Chalk it all up to the extraordinary demand for and very high prices of United States government debt, driven by investors’ concerns about the economy, a flight to dollar-denominated assets and foreign governments’ insatiable appetite for American bonds, among other trends.

Some other countries already allow negative interest rates. Germany, for instance, lets investors bid more than its short-term “Bubills” are worth, giving the securities negative yields.

A Treasury official said in the release that it would consider whether and how to facilitate the negative interest rates in a May meeting.


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