While we are flattered that our analysis is deemed worthy of mainstream sell-side research regurgitation, we caveat the celebration with the concern that perhaps JP Morgan already took advantage of the information a 'fringe blog' provided to the world (as we know many funds did given the requests for more explicit bond details) and is now looking to unwind the profitable (though modestly illiquid) positions it has been accumulating for the past three weeks.
Of course we agree with JP Morgan's perspective, since we came up with it, and in the case of Portugal there has indeed been less differentiation so far but extreme amounts of volatility in the last few weeks. While the market is indeed mis-pricing the legal differences between bonds as the 'option' to retroactively 'adjust' domestic law becomes worth more and more to the sovereign (and reduces value for the bond-holder) and so during this volatility we would remain vigilant for the ability to pairs trade - selling domestics into strength and buying foreigns - as bid-offers will compress if we see more LTRO-driven exuberance in the peripherals.
Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.
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