Hi faul,
Just a quick point. I expect 2012 to be a tough year for everyone. I think the US has done relatively well since the catastrophes visited upon it (and the world) during the Bush administration, and that the US will be relatively better off than, say, Europe during the next year. I am no gold bug and I think the monetary stimulus has helped protect the US against the potential effects of deflation - I am not in the least concerned by inflation until such time as there is a strong recovery. Indeed, I would welcome a little bit more of it than we have in order to reduce the value of the government debt overhang relative to the scope of the economy - but I am also aware of the fact that private US debt is much reduced and that the sum of the two is lower than it was at the height of the crisis and that Uncle Sam has to pay little interest - so from that viewpoint, the US is much healthier than it was. The markets clearly trust the US Federal Reserve (see 10 year interest rates) and this means that there is little risk of hyperinflation which would likely only appear in the absence of that trust. I am disappointed that Obama has been unable to stimulate the economy further by building and repairing US infrastructure and that the states are forced by the way they are constituted to adopt austerity policies which will harm the US' long run future (eg the defunding of education). US tax policies are also a problem, and I don't suppose these will be changed significantly absent an election - lowering taxes will increase the deficit and raising them on the wealthy will reduce it.
I think Europe will struggle as a result of the poor design of the Euro and the ECB, although the Central Bank seems to have found a way to issue emergency debt at last, which means they have a shot at recovery. A Euro break up would be pretty tough on the world economy, but the US economy would be a relatively safe port in that storm, as something like 85% of the US economy results from internal activity and the market is highly flexible. Much of Europe would likely be decimated, although I think the UK, the Scandinavians and Germany would be in the best position within the EU.
I worry that the Chinese housing bubble will burst and cause another major problem for everyone.
So I'm not making a prediction of global recovery or that the US will have a stellar 2012. I'm suggesting the US will do relatively well in a rather troubling environment, which at best would see US growth of GDP around 2%. And I think the US has done reasonably well relative to the other advanced economies over the last few years, by avoiding the siren song of extreme austerity which Europe has adopted.
Going forward, I think you see the US as not doing terribly well, because it has no gold standard and because it has fiat money (which it has now had for more than your absolute limit of time that such a currency might survive) and because the hidden controlling powers intend a different kind of outcome. Presumably, like Ron Paul has done, you anticipate hyperinflation. So I think this is how I will judge things in a year.
However, given your scepticism of the statistics which conflict with your view, I am not quite sure how my view will prevail in the course of a year even in the event that the US economy is reputedly growing and the US currency is reputedly reasonably stable.
As regards your returns, I congratulate you, but I don't see this as outweighing US unemployment data, government interest rates, inflation data and GDP information as measures of how things are going worldwide. And of course, I plan to do very well myself over the next few years as a result of my insights into the value of information!
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