Indeed. My views used to sound nutty on Raging Bull - from 2000 to 2004 or so. I was always a little bit proud of myself, knowing that they sounded completely paranoid... and WAY out of the experience of routine investors... but then making money as one call after another began trending my way. I think I was talking about a 2nd Great Depression back then... and a housing bubble that would burst... PM prices... how cheap and important farmable land was... the risk of fiat money collapse.
These things have now either happened or have at least lost their controversiality. If I mention a Greater Depression, folks yawn. They've heard it a thousand times. The housing bubble DID burst (and I'm sure glad I sold both houses.) Gold is up about 5-fold. Silver is up about 7-fold. Farm prices have made countless Iowans and Kansans rich. How outrageous did THAT prediction sound, back around 2003?? (And I sure wish I'd followed my own advice and bought a farm back then, but my life was in a bit of an upheval, and I knew I didn't want to stay in California. Whoops! Another prediction I made! Anyway, at least I've bought farmable land NOW - and in a place where land prices didn't soar the way they did in California and the mid-west.) The Euro is falling hard; the EU may disintegarte before much longer and I read articles every day about the high chance that its currency could fail THIS YEAR. That's now a mainstream media prediction.
It's far harder to make controversial-sounding predictions today. I still try:
o The U.S. will become a police state. This is happening NOW, but folks don't see it since they're suffering from "frog in a pan of warm water on a stove" syndrome. Small, frequent changes... particularly losses of liberty that mostly affect OTHER people... aren't recognized by most people, even as conditions transition from good to fair to bad to DEADLY.
o The dollar will suffer the same fate as the euro. I think 3 to 5 years AFTER the euro fails, the dollar will too. I have concerns, though, that it *COULD* fail much sooner... maybe even in 2012.
But I currently think the order of failure among major currencies will be EURO, YEN, DOLLAR.
o There will be a food crisis in the U.S. People will die from it. The best bet is that there will be plenty of food, but it will be impossible (probably due to fuel shortages) to deliver it to some places (cities) in a timely fashion.
o Gold will top $5,000/oz. That's not saying much, however. It's already up 5-fold, so it only has to rise another 3-fold from here for this prediction to come true. It's also not saying much since I've already posted that the dollar will fail. Therefore, so gold will also top $1 million/oz. The only question is WHEN. And, who really cares since, by then, a loaf of bread will have done the same thing?
o WW III is on its way. Maybe it won't be called that. I hope my son can somehow miss it - because it won't be a "good" war for the U.S. like WW II was.
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