Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/30/2011 21:03 -0500
default
Hayman Capital
Japan
Kyle Bass
Sovereign Debt
In his latest letter to LPs, Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management, offers his tell-tale clarity on what may lie ahead for Europe and Japan. With his over-arching thesis of debt saturation becoming more plain to see around every corner, Bass bundles the simple (and somewhat unarguable) facts of quantitative analysis with a qualitative perspective on the cruel self-deception that we all see and read every day about Europe.
Whether it is Kahneman's "availability heuristic" (wherein participants assess the probability of an event based on whether relevant examples are cognitively "available"), the Pavlovian pro-cyclicality of thought, or the extraordinary delusions of groupthink, investors in today's sovereign debt markets can't seem to envision the consequences of a default.
His Japanese scenario is no less convicted, as we have discussed a number of times, with the accelerant of this debt-bomb being the very-same European debacle and his time-frame for this is set to begin in the next few months.
Hayman_Nov2011
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/imminent-defaults-and-self-deception-kyle-bass-prepares-worst?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
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Wed, 11/30/2011 - 21:30 | 1933581 CPL
CPL's picture
Bass is an amazing technical writer and games master.
For those that didn't read the article; As debt increases the frequency of the bailouts increases like a snow ball rolling down hill and we are almost at the bottom of the hill.
Does not mean go out and purchase FAZ or whichever fabricated leveraged derivative device you use. It means wait for the opportunity to buy it.
Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.
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