It is becoming increasingly more apparent day by day that Newt Gingrich is going to be a very serious contender for the Republican nomination for the Presidency of the United States. Gingrich has emerged from the pack after a seemingly bad start earlier in the year when revelations came out that he had a rather large line of credit at one of the finer jewelry outlets in America. Newt has always loved the finer things in life. His third wife looks more like a trophy bride than anything else. But, it has been reported that Gingrich changed over to the Catholic faith so that she would marry him. That is quite a move for a son of the south such as Gingrich and it shows the changeable nature of the man himself.

Gingrich first emerged on the scene as a congressman from Georgia where he rose in the Republican house hierarchy to finally, in November of 1994, become the speaker elect of the United States House of representatives. This occurred after Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton’s flirtation with health care reform in his first two years as president. The reasons for the Republican takeover of the congress in 1994 after forty years of democrat rule in the house of representatives probably run far deeper than just the health care fiasco. Gingrich and his fellow Republicans signed on to a Contract with America that year and they ran on that theme throughout the fall campaign. That contract featured the usual Republican staples of small government and less taxes that has been the Republican mantra for decades now. The nation was apparently ready for change because the midterm elections of 1994 saw even the democrat speaker of the house go down to defeat out in the state of Washington.

Newt Gingrich has always been considered a master political tactician, however, his tactics have not always proven successful. In the midterm elections of 1998 the Republicans decided to double down on their campaign against Bill Clinton and his sexual problems with Monica Lewinski while the electorate had lost interest in this affair. What resulted was a very rare post presidential election midterm loss for the party out of power which, in its turn, resulted in Newt Gingrich resigning both his speaker ship and his seat in the Georgia delegation. We remember especially, however, how Gingrich passed out books, mainly historical in nature, to his Republican colleagues in the wake of the 1994 election as assigned reading before the new legislative session began. Gingrich has a PhD in history and was a professor of history at a Georgia university before the start of his political career.

After his resignation from the speaker ship and congress in late 1998, Gingrich turned to lobbying as a profession and he has been a creature of Washington almost exclusively since that time. It is interesting to note that he still had enough influence over his colleagues to have a strong say in the naming of his successor to the speaker ship--Dennis Hastert of Illinois--who would serve until the Republicans lost control of the house in 2006.

The 2012 field of Republican candidates is not an exceptionally strong field and it was probably inevitable that Gingrich, due to his strong debating skills honed by years in the House of Representatives, would emerge from the pack. His strongest competition is Mitt Romney . However, Romney has flip flopped on so many issues that it looks apparent to us that, if Gingrich plays his cards correctly, he may be able to overturn the consistent front runner and take the nomination. The Republican party is divided almost evenly between the tea party elements and the anti tea party elements, showing just how much power the new tea party seems to have over the party of Abraham Lincoln these days. It has been said that change only occurs when there arises a party that will not compromise any at all and the tea party certainly represents that thought. It should also be pointed out, however, that Gingrich and his fellow Republicans did compromise to some degree with the Democrats after 1994 to create a situation where meaningful deficit reduction did occur in the last years of the 1990’s. Bill Clinton was once quoted as stating that he did not see how any balanced budget situation could occur until after his presidency had ended, however, under Gingrich and the republicans constant prodding, it not only happened, but, also, pay downs on the outstanding debt also occurred during that period of time. All of this was washed away and into history by the disastrous presidency of George W. Bush when he and a spending party of his own ran up over six trillion dollars of new deficits over an eight year period of time.

An example of just how much Newt Gingrich is a master political strategist might include what has gone on recently in his campaign. Just a few days ago, Gingrich, a constant fountain of ideas, floated the idea that it might be a good thing to fire all of the union janitors in public schools and hire poor students under the supervision of a master, apparently non union, janitor, to mop the floors and to clean the school toilets. Along with this thought, Gingrich also stated that the current child labor laws were “ridiculous�. Since most of the poor students in inner city environments where union janitors exist are black, this caused an uproar among fellow Republican and those in the Democratic party. Gingrich, however, understands the media quite well, so he gave them another idea that involved something close to the apparent admission that he would create at least a partial amnesty for families who had lived in this nation illegally for, say, ten years or more. Gingrich made himself look compassionate as he stood up for the family, even though that family might be Latin American in makeup. It should be remembered that Texas governor Rick Perry made somewhat similar statements about illegal aliens living in the United States when he defended Texas’ idea that they should be given instate tuition no matter where they lived in the United States. Perry’s campaign went down the tubes for that and some other reasons that are quite well known. The difference is that Gingrich played to the apparent racial themes that some Republicans like by stating that young black children should be taught the respect of work at an early age while he also played to Republican family values, even though they might be illegal families, by stating that families should be kept together. It is apparent to most political observers that Gingrich will get little of the black vote in this nation in a presidential election, but, that the Latino vote will be a major factor. It is also known that Latinos, usually strong Catholics, have a great belief and feeling for the family and family values.

Newt Gingrich will bring strong baggage with him into the presidential campaign if he is the Republican party’s nominee because he has been a lobbyist for major corporations and organizations for many years now. Gingrich is the ultimate Washington insider and this may not play well in a year when the prevailing theme may very well be “throw all of the bums out and start over.� Newt Gingrich has made many statements throughout his political and lobbying career that may not play well with independents and some more liberal Republicans. However, he has been out of Washington elected circles for years and, from the way that Republicans are shopping their field of candidates and non candidates this year, the main concern seems to be, among republican at least, to beat Barack Obama at any cost. Newt Gingrich would be a strong debater and a decisive issue framer in any campaign that he might get into. And. The more scholarly Obama might not come off as decisive in a campaign against Gingrich. The campaign of 2012, no matter who faces Obama, is going to be very nasty in nature after the Citizens United supreme court decision removed most all restraints against campaign spending. And, there is much nastiness that can be legitimately thrown against Gingrich or Romney either one. Where Romney is a strong, if Mormon, family values candidate with a legitimate Republican past with his father George Romney running for president back in the 1960’s, Gingrich is on his third wife and has some troubling past in the way that he has handled the dissolution of at least one of his prior marriages. Newt Gingrich supposedly went to his sick spouse in the hospital and had her sign divorce papers so that he could marry one of his other wives. When you combine that fact with the potent political brew of stating that child labor laws are ridiculous, you come up with the makings of a very nasty and negative political campaign season just ahead.

In the final analysis, at least Gingrich is articulate and bright, and that is something that cannot be readily said for some of the other members of the current crop of Republican contenders. He is certainly far brighter than the last Republican president and might not fall under some of the influences that George W. Bush found himself involved with. At least Newt Gingrich has a strong foundation in history, and, no matter what one might say about that, it can serve to make sure that at least the errors of the past are understood before they become the mistakes of the future.

IOVHO,

Regards,

Joe