Since I seem to have some time on my hands before the big event/non-event, I looked at the options open interest on the Yahoo finance page for IDCC. Since it's a pretty crowded field, including all the players you might expect throwing their money in the pot, there are a lot of call contracts for December and January (approximately 1.5 to 1) and not so many yet for March. What does this all mean? My interpretation may differ from others, but in my own simple way I think it means that there is uncertainty that it will happen in December. Brilliant, yes? Some have pointed out that since this operation has a lot of people involved at IDCC, Barclays and Evercore who know what's going on, somebody will use the information. When so much money is at stake, the temptation to use inside information is probably too much for someone to resist. But how is it reflected in the option price and volumes for December and January. If I knew, I wouldn't be posting here. A few months ago it looked like a good bet that it would happen before December, but the options volume for January throws cold water on that thought. It would seem prudent to roll December calls over to January. JMO.
I do have some options, but I am way more invested in shares. And please, don't anyone lecture me on options. Or tell me how bad they are like I got over at iHub. If you really want to preach to me, I can tell you that the chances are real good that I know more than you do.
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