I have a measurement for economic activity that despite being unscientific and basic, it is very reliable.
In a few words, I look at traffic on rush hour, morning and afternoon, on the NY's highways whenever I happen to drive those times, and it is within this last couple of weeks that for the first time in over two years I've been in bumper to bumper, slow moving traffic, 30 miles or more north of the city. The unemployment rate may not show it yet, but it is happening. We are out of the doldrums. People are on the move again, to the point where I am annoyed because of the stop and go, which I had almost forgotten about.
It's been a long time coming. Load up.
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