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The Market's Trip To Never Land

By: capt_nemo in POPE | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 15 Nov 11 8:15 PM | 41 view(s)
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Do you want to know something that's not really a secret? They're trying to take this market for a ride. One that will last exactly 50 days.

We've been writing in this space about how badly the equity markets want to push higher into the close of the year. What else could explain the ridiculous leap up the last two days of the week last week? A warning about that Friday gap-up rally: it was the lightest trading day since mid-July. That was when a similar low-volume attempt to set off a technical buy-in was followed by a massive correction (over 20% high-to-low).

But corrections are for July, aren't they? The 2000-2003 bear market was interrupted by a 20+% year-end rally that began in mid-September of 2001. The market flat-out collapsed almost immediately afterwards, but then (of course) staged another fourth-quarter rally in the fall of 2002. That rally also disappeared immediately with the changing of the year, and the markets couldn't get going again until springtime, the other important time to buy stocks (and you thought earnings mattered. Silly!).

In case it's slipped your mind, even the crash of 2008 was interrupted by a fourth-quarter rally. Weeks after the Lehman debacle had caused credit markets to seize up, the economy was falling off a cliff, global trade had come practically to a halt and workers were being dismissed as fast as they could print the notices. Well, some people just don't understand the power of fundamental analysis, do they? From the low on November 17th of that year, the markets powered ahead by nearly 20% into year-end. Afterwards, of course, the bottom fell out again until – you guessed it - springtime! Here's a little factoid for you: the 2000-2003 bear finally fled on March 10, 2003. The 2007-2009 sibling left on March 9, 2009. Just a coincidence, we are sure.

We have to confess to a tiny bit of doubt t

http://seekingalpha.com/article/307980-the-market-s-trip-to-never-land?source=feed




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Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.




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