October 26, 2011 - Pizza Magnate Leads GOP Presidential Pack In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Romney Stalled As Perry Vanishes
Former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain has jumped to the front of the line among GOP presidential contenders with 28 percent support among Ohio Republicans. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is second with 23 percent, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry is almost at the bottom of the pile with 4 percent.
Cain leads a three-man race with 40 percent, followed by Romney at 33 percent and Perry at 10 percent.
President Barack Obama's job approval rating and re-elect numbers remain underwater among Ohio voters, who disapprove 51 - 43 percent and say 49 - 44 percent the president does not deserve a second term, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
Despite his negative scores, the president leads potential Republican challengers:
• 47 - 39 percent over Cain;
• 45 - 41 percent over Romney;
• 47 - 36 percent over Perry.
In the GOP presidential race in Ohio, in line behind Cain and Romney are Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 8 percent, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7 percent, Perry and Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann at 4 percent each, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at 2 percent and former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum at 1 percent.
"Herman Cain's rise has been meteoric. He has increased his share of the vote among Ohio Republicans four times since Quinnipiac University's September 28 survey in which he registered 7 percent," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Gov. Mitt Romney hasn't moved and Rick Perry has fallen off a cliff, down to 4 percent from 20 percent."
"There is a zero-sum relationship between how well Cain and Perry do. A large chunk of the new Cain support is coming from former supporters of the Texas governor," Brown added.
"Cain's support is strong among Republican men, who give him 32 percent of their votes, while he receives 23 percent among GOP women. Romney, on the other hand, does better among women - 25 percent compared to 20 percent among GOP men. When Ohio Republicans are asked who they would support if the nomination came down to Cain, Romney and Perry, the former pizza executive's lead grows to 40 percent."
Although Obama's negative ratings on his job approval and "deserves reelection" question remain basically unchanged, he defeats Romney 45 - 41 percent, compared to 44 - 42 percent in September, and Perry 47 - 36 percent, compared to 44 - 41 percent in September. Cain, who trails Obama 47 - 39 percent in today's trial heat, was not tested against him in September.
In the closest general election matchup, between Romney and the president, men split 44 - 45 percent, while Obama has a 46 - 38 percent lead among women. They also capture their party bases equally, but Romney has a 43 - 36 percent margin among independent voters.
"Ohio voters are not happy with the president's performance and don't think he deserves a second term. But elections are about choices," said Brown. "At this point none of the Republicans are able to take advantage of these presidential negatives. The next year will determine if the GOP is able to nominate a candidate who can do so."
In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown remains solidly ahead of his two GOP challengers. Voters prefer Brown to Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel 49 - 34 percent and Brown to State Sen. Kevin Coughlin 51 - 30 percent. In a primary test among GOP voters, Mandel defeats Coughlin 35 - 12 percent, with 48 percent undecided.
"The GOP contenders for Sen. Sherrod Brown's seat are not well known. Whether they will run better once they do get better known around the state will decide the election."
From October 17 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,668 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary includes 542 voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1666
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