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Re: EU Finance Ministers Decide to Force Banks to Take Bigger Greek Bond Losses, Recapitalize by $140 Billion; Amount Insufficient, Few Other Details

By: Decomposed in ROUND | Recommend this post (0)
Sun, 23 Oct 11 6:51 PM | 59 view(s)
Boardmark this board | De's Test Board 		Msg. 35775 of 45651
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EU 'bank failures will crash Wall Street'... 

Oct. 18, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT

EU bank failures will crash Wall Street — again
Commentary: 8 warnings for Washington and Occupiers

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Worst-case scenario’s closing fast: Occupy Wall Street growing. But no political power or allies yet. Feared yes, attacked by GOP proxy tea party. Soon the Occupation will explode into a new American Revolution.

When? A string of European bank collapses is dead ahead. And like the Arab Spring, they will trigger an economic disaster for American banks.

Yes, coming soon says Martin Weiss in his “7 Major Advance Warnings,” which is “bound to have a life-changing impact on nearly all investors in the U.S. and around the globe.” His new Weiss Ratings warnings are the “most important” in a 40-year career. The stress on Wall Street banks will force them back to Congress for more bailouts.

Warning eight: No new bailouts. That will push the economy into a deep recession.

Then what? New Glass-Steagall? Not enough. Tax the rich? Not enough. Perp walks? Not enough. Presidential commission? Useless promises. Occupy Wall Street will fail without a fundamental constitutional change. No compromise. Or Wall Street wins, again. We go back to the same free market, deregulated, too-greedy to-fail, conservative Reaganomics policies that have been destroying democracy for a generation.

All this was so obvious, so predictable. America is at a crossroads. Occupy Wall Street buildup has emerged as America’s last great hope to restore democracy. Last week when USA Today called the Occupiers a “ragtag assortment of college kids, labor unionists, conspiracy theorists and others” hinting they’re a flash-in-the-pan “devoid of remedies,” I smiled, reminded of that famous painting of George Washington crossing the Delaware on Christmas 1776, leading what historians also called a “ragtag” Continental Army, surprising the British, and winning the Battle of Trenton.

America’s collective conscience wants true democracy restored

Yes, USA Today sees a “ragtag” army: No mission, no goals, no organization, no agenda, no leaders, and no staying power. Wrong. Look deeper: The Occupiers are the voice of America’s collective conscience demanding a return to our 1776 roots, to a “government of the people, by the people, for the people.”

Our collective inner voice knows America’s moral compass is broken. We’ve become a government “of, by and for” special interests, the wealthiest 1%, Wall Street insiders, CEOs and Forbes-400 billionaires. It happened fast: In one generation the Super Rich grabbed “absolute power,” killing the middle class American dream.

Wall Street banks are already dismissing the Occupiers … planning bigger bonuses this year… lifting limits on their license to gamble Main Street deposits in the $600 trillion global derivatives casino … they already spend hundreds of millions lobbying every year … they’re convinced they can defeat the Occupiers with campaign donations in the back rooms of Congress … writing off the fight as another business expense … ultimately expecting the Occupiers will vanish into the cold winter months.

One citizen. One dollar. One vote. Anything less is failure

Warning: Don’t be fooled. Occupy Wall Street knows exactly want it wants. The tea party, GOP’s proxy, isn’t fooled. They feel threatened, counter-attacking, worried their role will be lost in the 2012 elections, fearful they’ll lose sway over Republicans, so they’ve got a smear campaign against Occupy Wall Street. Won’t work:

Amid all the noise surrounding Occupy Wall Street we hear their “one simple demand.” Missed by most outsiders, that demand echoes down through American history, first heard in 1776 in the Declaration of Independence. Earlier the Occupiers voiced their one simple demand:

“We demand that integrity be restored to our elections. One citizen. One dollar. One vote. Only citizens should make campaign contributions. Campaign contributions by citizens should not exceed $1 to any political candidate or party. Help us reclaim democracy.”

Yes, one simple demand: “Stop the monied corruption at the heart of our democracy.” That one simple demand echoed over and over. And no compromise when dealing with so fundamental a principle of democracy. Compromises the last generation surrendered America to Wall Street and the Super Rich. Compromise this principle again, and we all lose, destroy America. No compromise. Period.

Phase 2: EU bank collapse gives Occupiers new political power

The Occupiers Revolution enters a new phase soon: First Arab Spring rippled into American Fall. Next, EU bank collapses will ripple through Wall Street. For a long time we’ve been warning the 2008 meltdown never ran its course, foiled by mega-bailouts … bankers never shared the sacrifice … fought all reforms … are back to business-as-usual … learned no lessons … now even more delusional, expecting bigger bonuses … trapped in denial for three years … cannot see what’s ahead … a perfect setup for a bigger crash.

That’s why my eye locked on Martin Weiss’ “7 Major Advance Warnings.” Weiss has been a champion of the little guy for 40 years, author of “The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recession and Depression.” Weiss Ratings of domestic and foreign debt markets downgraded U.S. debt before the S&P.

Both of us were warning well in advance of the 2008 crash. It was so predictable: Weiss warned of “failure of Bear Stearns Lehman, Washington Mutual, near-failure of Citigroup and the demise of Fannie Mae years before it collapsed.”

So listen closely to his “7 Major Advance Warnings,” which are “the most important in the 40-year history of my company.” Many will dismiss them, distracted by today’s campaign noise. Others will dismiss them as “over there,” problems for Europeans. Weiss warns: EU banks problems are “bound to have a life-changing impact on nearly all investors in the U.S. and around the globe.”

So listen and discount what Wall Street is selling you. Protect your portfolio. Here are edited highlights:

1. Greece will default very soon ...  

”Banks must bite the bullet and take some big hits in their Greek loans. … Whether banks accept this ‘solution’ voluntarily or not, it will mean Greece is in default.”

2. The contagion of fear will spread …  

Global investors know “if one major Western government can default, so can others.” They will refuse to lend “to highly indebted governments” or “demand outrageously high yields.”

3. European megabanks will collapse …  

Some of the “largest banks will collapse under the weight of defaulting sovereign debts and … mass withdrawals … Spain … French banks” … the impact will ripple across “J.P. Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup … All three are in danger.”

4. EU governments suffer new credit rating downgrades ... 

”France and Germany, will scramble to rescue their failing banks.” But “bank bailouts are seriously flawed” as “governments gut their own fiscal balance … suffer big downgrades,” or pay “far higher interest rates.”

5. Spain and Italy next to face default on their massive debts ... 

With “$3.4 trillion in debt, or about 10 times more than Greece” they too risk default.

6. Global debt markets will suffer a critical meltdown ... 

Anticipating “default by a country as large as Spain or Italy, nearly all debt markets in the world will freeze.” Withdrawals, panic “not only crush the borrowing power of the PIIGS” but threaten meltdowns in “France, Germany, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S.”

7. Vicious cycle: sovereign defaults, bank failures, global depression ... 

Government defaults trigger more bank failures, “cut off the flow of credit to businesses and households, sink the global economy into a depression, and perpetuate the vicious cycle.”

Warning to investors: No bank bailouts, power to Occupation
History inevitably repeats itself: Arab Spring triggered Wall Street Fall. Next, the raging European monetary collapse will ripple through America’s banking system, completing the 2008 meltdown that never ended because Wall Street fought all reforms.

But now, a bigger meltdown as history repeats a dangerous cycle like the 1929 Crash and Great Depression.

History will also deal a fatal blow to Wall Street. Weiss adds a key warning: No bank bailouts. America’s banking system is bankrupt, structurally and morally. Washington is broken. And thanks to the Occupiers Revolution the masses will never accept new bank bailouts. Never. They’ll toss politicians and overthrow government first.

No new bailouts will be the stake in the heart of Wall Street, ending the “greed is good” power of America’s “bloodsucking vampire squid,” handing the Occupiers new political power in Washington.

Weiss’s worst-case scenario highlights everything we’ve both been warning investors about for a long time. The 2008 meltdown never ended, lessons never learned. But now the end game is accelerating.

Listen closely: Weiss final warning to all investors: “Get all or most of your money out of danger immediately … above all, stay safe!” Prepare for the coming bank collapse. And discover how this historic scenario will empower the Occupiers message to get money out of elections: “One citizen. One dollar. One vote.”

Compromise on that principle and Wall Street wins, again.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eu-bank-failures-will-crash-wall-street-again-2011-10-18




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Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months

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EU Finance Ministers Decide to Force Banks to Take Bigger Greek Bond Losses, Recapitalize by $140 Billion; Amount Insufficient, Few Other Details
By: capt_nemo in ROUND
Sun, 23 Oct 11 3:52 AM 		Msg. 35766 of 45651

Details are sketchy but Reuters reports Banks under pressure in Europe crisis, pushed to raise capital, take Greek losses

On Saturday, the finance ministers of the 27-country European Union decided to force the bloc's biggest banks to substantially increase their capital buffers -- an important move to ensure that they are strong enough to withstand the panic that a steep cut to Greece's debt could trigger on financial markets.

A European official said the new capital rules would force banks to raise just over euro100 billion ($140 billion), but finance ministers did not provide details on their decision. The official was speaking on condition of anonymity because it had been agreed to let leaders unveil the deal at their first summit Sunday.

The deal on banks was likely to be the only major breakthrough ready to announce on Sunday, leaving many important decisions and negotiations to be completed by Wednesday night.

On Friday, the first day of the marathon talks, the finance ministers of the 17 countries that use the euro -- and which have found themselves at the center of the crisis because of the currency they share -- agreed to demand Greece's private creditors take big losses on their bondholdings.

But they still have get the banks to come along and convince them that the cuts are the best way to ensure that Athens can eventually repay its remaining debts.

The picture in Greece, whose troubles kicked off the crisis almost two years ago, is bleaker than ever. A new report from Athens' international debt inspectors -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- proved that a preliminary deal for a second package of rescue loans reached in July is already obsolete.

The report showed that in the past three months Greece's economic situation has deteriorated so dramatically that for the bank deal to remain in place, the official sector would have to provide some euro252 billion ($347 billion) in loans. Alternatively, to keep official loans at euro109 billion ($150 billion), banks would have to accept cuts of about 60 percent to the value of their Greek bonds.

"I believe we are now arriving at a more realistic view of the situation in Greece," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the country that has long been advocating a more radical solution to Athens' problems.

But Merkel and her eurozone counterpart were on for tough negotiations with the banks.

Charles Dallara, who has been representing private investors in the talks with the eurozone, said Saturday that negotiations that carried on sporadically throughout Saturday were making only slow progress.

"We're nowhere near a deal," he told The Associated Press in an interview.

Germany and France still disagree over how to give the EFSF more firepower. France wants the fund to be allowed to tap the ECB's massive cash reserves -- an option that Germany rejects. Weaker economies, meanwhile, are wary of signing up to the other two parts of the grand plan -- bigger bank capital and cuts to Greece's debt -- without assurance that sufficient buffers are in place.

Recapitalization Insufficient

100 Million Euros is insufficient. The IMF pegged the amount between 100 million and 200 million. There is absolutely no reason to suspect the minimum is needed. Indeed, there is every reason to expect 400 million euros is insufficient.

Capital Shortfall Estimates of European Banks Range from 8 to 413 Billion Euros

The Wall Street Journal reports widely varying analyst ranges in its article European Banks Face New Scrutiny Over Capital Needs

Analyst Estimates

Citigroup estimates there is a capital shortfall of between €64 billion and €216 billion for banks to achieve a minimum core Tier 1 ratio of 7% to 9%, respectively.

Credit Suisse came up with a similar figure of €220 billion for the potential 9% scenario.

Analysts at Espirito Santo said write-downs at current market prices on Greek, Portuguese, Irish, Italian and Spanish bonds, along with a higher minimum capital ratio of around 9%, could require as much as €413 billion in new capital across the sector.

Merrill Lynch analysts in turn came up with estimates of between €7.6 billion and €143 billion in required capital for the region's major banks, depending on various scenarios.


These ranges provide more questions than answers. Moreover, low-end lowball estimates such as €7.6 billion by Merrill Lynch are preposterous under all but the most ludicrous scenarios in the third round of "stress-free" tests now underway.

Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Josef Ackermann says it isn't clear recapitalization efforts will help solve the crisis.

Hey, let's just not recognize any bank losses ever.

Credit Suisse Estimates

Zero Hedge has some interesting charts of capital shortfalls as estimated by Credit Suisse.
Commentary and charts below from Credit Suisse. No link provided. Click on charts for sharper image.

One of our conclusions was that the overall European banking sector is facing a €400bn capital shortfall which compares to a current market cap of €541bn.

The table below details the breakdown of our estimated capital shortfall.

Figure 6: European banks – Capital deficit in CS ‘accelerated sovereign shock

I believe 400 million Euros will prove way insufficient once Portugal, then Spain, then Italy get into trouble.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/10/eu-finance-ministers-decide-to-force.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29

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