I agree with Roque's analysis. However, while the 200-day-moving-average exists as the outside low support point, the 150 dma does a better job of describing risk.
Every significant correction since April 2009 has bottomed at the 150-day moving average. Interestingly, the 150 dma is not far from lateral support defined by the early-May peak.
Based on a chart I'm looking at, the 150 dma looks to be about $1,590, while the 200 dma is about $1,525.
Gold is presently $1,638, so the odds strongly favor a base being established in the next few weeks.
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