A Back of the Napkin Look,
OK, if we look at the chart for the last 10 trading days we can conclude a few things that are very important to this investment:
-This equity has be sold off so dramatically that one could argue that the "takeover premium" has been removed. As much as this down move has been painful, and it has, the real risk here no matter what happens is now only about 10 points further down if that, so put insurance is basically no longer needed. I am assuming you are in the equity of course, if you are in options the time issue remains the big quesiton.
-The next important question is whether this move is distribution by smart money who know the first round either did not go so well or has not yet gone at all meaning there are low bids or no bids. If low bids, that is a misread by the market becasue the first round is bound to be a feel it out session nothing more. If no bids, then we are heading back to the mid 40"s without a positive CAFC and there is the additional 10 point risk in the trade.
-TA here is completely useless folks. If TA meant anything we would all be selling this, but we are not. This chart has broken every downline and support with no problem but no one should care. Everyone here is playing for one reason and that is the auction, news will drive this issue and that is it.
-Does the market turmoil hurt the process? Well, in a word No. While it probably does not help, and stable markets would create stable bidding, I highly doubt that any bidders, or any serious ones have a short term outlook as many here and the markets themselves. Now the global slowdown does bring up the issue of preserving cash, but there are some bidders here ala AAPL, MSFT, QCOM, INTC and a few others that have no cash worries and the rest will probably need a bidding group anyway. Nope, we are up for sale today and tomrrow we may not be, get it while its hot if at all.
-Can we have an up day, just one? Yes, my guess is over the weekend or tomorrow late something will leak out, lets hope it is good and not about someone leaving the bidding process. My thought, we open doen tomorrow and close much higher, just a WAG.
In the end, I think there are serious bidders here, I think they are engaged and will mkae a move for what seems to be a very valued asset that many will need going forward as we all know. we sell this company for about $110-$120 and we all meet in Vegas! JMHO, gl
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