No, says Mark Hulbert.
Sept. 21, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Is gold becoming Theglobe.com?
Commentary: Compare gold and 1990s dot-com bubble
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Is gold forming a bubble?
It seems that way to many, given its stunning rise in recent months. Their speculation has been fueled by no shortage of posts in the blogosphere that declare gold to be in a blowoff similar to the final stage of the Nasdaq Composite’s rise before the Internet bubble burst in March 2000.
But I’m not so sure.
Compare gold’s rise over the last decade to that of the Nasdaq Composite Index over the 10 years through March 10, 2000 — the day of its all-time closing high at 5,048.60. At least in comparison to that bubble, gold still has a long way to go.
In fact, if gold had risen as much over the last decade as the Nasdaq Composite did in the 1990s, then bullion would today be trading at more than $3,200 an ounce. That’s nearly double its current price of around $1,800 an ounce.
But there is an even more fundamental distinction between the top of the dot-com bubble in March 2000 and the current gold market: Then, the typical stock market trader believed stocks were headed much, much higher — and, therefore, that any pullback should be used to buy more.
In today’s gold market, in contrast, there is a remarkable level of skittishness in the gold-timer community. That is not the typical sentiment hallmark of a top of a bubble.
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Full article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-gold-forming-a-bubble-2011-09-21
Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months
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