Good morning to you too, clo!
I agree with your assessment.
And I have to wonder if the DNC is going to "suggest" to the President that he step down when his term ends. It will soon be apparent that he CAN'T win, and that Hillary's chances are better.
The only thing is, I think you're also right that Hillary would rather run the IMF. If that's the case, the Democrats would have to console themselves knowing that, like Obama, the 2012 winner will ALSO probably be a one-term President.
(I'm not as sure of that as I was about the 2008 election winner, btw. In crisis, Americans are willing to reelect an economically incompetent President IF he is likeable. They did so with FDR three times.)
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