Msg. 05728 of 54959 (This msg. is a reply to
05727 by
Cactus Flower)
Jump:
Hi Alea
I don't discount the latter option, either. It is likely that Wave's sales structure will undergo substantial change as the market develops. Were I in SKS' shoes, I would offer Wave's wares at a substatial discount to companies like GM and BP, then raise my prices as our position as the only option for managing SED's and TPM's becomes more solid.
Regarding the pace of sales, I have never believed that there would be only a slow, steady ramp up in sales numbers. Instead, early sales will be more granular, with bunches of sales appearing clumped closer together, like the GM, PWC, and BASF sequence. We are currently going through a quiet time for major deals, which I predict will be followed by another flurry, probably within the six weeks after the NSA conference. (Maybe BP will appear before that) An announcement of a mobile deal or of large scale government adoption will supercharge this process, of course.
Other than his reputation among a part of the Wavoid nation, SKS' past record is a non-issue, IMO. It hasn't kept him from being in the midst of the highest government decision making on Trusted Computing, or from making sales to multi-billion dollar companies, or from having Wave well positioned with strong patents, products, and talent in Trusted Computing.
They've built a sales structure that - in design - should yield stronger, more sustained results than you allow for.
So my question is a different one: is the sales structure based on a visible pipeline, or is it simply speculative?
If it is the former, then the ship is finally emerging from the fog. Unlike Hari, I don't discount the latter. I'm going to wait and see, with my optimismometer set at 7 for incremental growth (or 6 if they produce no more than one major sale this quarter, also depending on scale).
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