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Re: Wave results

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Wed, 17 Aug 11 3:41 AM | 42 view(s)
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Msg. 05637 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 05606 by Cactus Flower)

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I guess the folks who are learning new things on the iHub board are not reading this one so much!




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Wave results
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Fri, 12 Aug 11 7:11 PM
Msg. 05606 of 54959

Hi tkc,

The future's on a knife-edge, here. It isn't altogether clear in the numbers that the strong demand pull - which SKS claims from the unsafe harbour and which would warrant the hiring frenzy - is present.

One way of looking at this is he sees the demand coming and is hiring to fulfil it. In this case, Feeney would be guiding the rate at which hiring is undertaken based on a solid pipeline of business. But I don't see support for the rate of hiring growth in the historical revenue numbers. There's steady but not spectacular growth in the P&L (and an accounting change which obscures the comparisons). And the advance cash needs to be replaced if the $10m treasury is not to diminish.

Another way of looking at things is that SKS is risking the organic growth of the business and its liquidity in favor of the rocket launch he is hoping will materialise. We all know he talks a good game, but unfortunately the years of excessive optimism and missed targets (eg the August contract) tend to create scepticism in the less dreamy listener.

Even the latter strategy is probably the right decision, although it is highly risky. Wave will likely cease to exist as an independent entity unless it can find a market. This links back to his statement in the last CC that becoming a division of a larger entity is something he fears.

So I think it's crossed-fingers time. Hope the pipeline is real.


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