Curious post from iHub:
"Where we are, and where are we going?
Jaybeaux, it seems to me that we are still not far enough along to have been able to say good ridence to the manipulators and hedge fund message board thuggers. This is not Warren Buffet 101, it's Anthony Pacific and Co. deception and manipulation 101. Working Capital could be just another long time manefestation of the "pretend long" whose personality and posting themes are intentionally written to sow the seeds of doubt and fear. His kind are very good at faking being a long. I think Weby said it well the other day referring to 6,000 to almost 9 million a quarter as no small feat. The same percentage growth over the next 2-3 years and we will be very, very happy. I heard the other day that Matt from I-hub is in Jail for stock fraud. I have no idea if this is true, I have not taken the time to dig up those facts. But if it is true it speaks volumes for the "independent" nature of these forums. Something to think about, I should not be surprised that a service that sells you access to their website would also conspire with stock manipulators to influence and alter the nature of discussions on these boards. I still find it incredulous that Jermart has free reign here, but if I post anything even remotely personal about his actions the posts are deleated. In this soil, I am very happy that there is a new message board, it is just unfortunate that there is not any real dialogue taking place there.
My question for Awk and others, is where the future path to a greater quarter over quarter growth rate? The current growth rates do not get us to 20 million dollar quarters for quite some time. Don't get me wrong, I do see that the company is making progress, but as Steven grows the size of his employment base, and as break even keeps getting pushed out quarter after quarter I am not happy that there is a distinct possiblity that we will not even end the year at the highwater mark from last January. After having been here for more than a decade, that is really unacceptable, dissapointing, and too much of a slog to be content with.
That said, I have no intention to sell, I am holding to see where we are 3-4 quarters from now, but when even Steven says 38 million for the year is on the high end, it does not inspire confidence or evidence of excellerating growth rate. At this pace we will be lucky to have a 50 million dollar 2012 and that leaves us far short of a 100 million dollar year. Furthermore, as Steven grows his staff and our burn rate continues to grow, that pushes 1 dollar a share in earnings out even further. By then it will probably take a 140 million in earnings to reach that level of profitability and those solw growth rates at a period realistically three years out, we will be very lucks to have a PE of 20, and that would put a stock price of $20 a share three years out. I don't know about the rest of you, but that's not much of a return after what would then be 15 years of waiting and watching. So, guys please enlighten me as to what drivers or aspects of Wave's business model result in a dramatic quarer over quarter growth rate. There has been no new OEM, HP looks quite like it will never happen in terms of bundling, the government is havin a jolly good time at seminars and meetings talking aobut TC while doing absolutely nothing with Wave product portfolio, Sed drives are yet to take off in substantial numbers, and yet we are substantially off our lows two weeks ago. AS Go Kite said some time ago, this is the making of a "niche" company, not a transforming technology leader. Show me clear evidence of access to consumer markets and that would obvioulsy change this dynamic. Until Steven can demonstrate access to that market, I do not see a clear path to great quarter over quarter growth rates. As I posted earlier, there is a path to $10-20 a share, but it would be to me a continuation of the slog.
Again, visible signs of progress are great to see, just no evidence that any kind of "tipping point" is anywhere in Wave's one year future. A stock price of $6-10 a share by this time next year would be acceptable, but I would think for many here that would still be a very dissapointing rate of growth given the time and energy invested in this company. I whole heartedly agree with those sentiments prior to the last conference call, it is way past due that Steven begin to put his shareholders interests and growing the company to a VISIBLE success story be priority number one.
So, I can understand why we are languishing at %50 off our highs this past Janauary, and would appreciate others thoughts on what the next 4 months have in store for us, and where will we be this coming January.
RC"
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