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Re: Wave results

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sun, 14 Aug 11 7:58 PM | 28 view(s)
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Msg. 05617 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 05606 by Cactus Flower)

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The big picture thing is that Wave is trying to introduce a landscape hardening product into the marketplace. Something which firms up the edges of digital information in the way that a fence marks the edge of a field, or the outer layer of skin denotes the final expression of a person's body, or law establishes the edge which separates freedom from the harms that anarchy produces. It's a product which renders the word copy something limitable, something which may be used in some circumstances but not in others.

But at the same time, there is another interest, one which currently belongs to consumers and which they perceive is the kernel of their unique and individual freedom - and that is control of the capabilities of their equipment.

The question Wave puts to them is this. If we can show that freedom is something different from anarchy, that the advantage of curtailing your ability to copy anything and everything you wish is that you will gain control of other things - your private information, your digital wealth, your access to new spaces, even your identity - then perhaps many folks will see that freedom is a bargain between competing virtues and that we sometimes gather up benefits as a result of setting limits on what we can do. Some kinds of internet use causes harm. It is a nice thing to have a zone of privacy, to know that another user cannot get access to our bank account, that we can retain some secrets - even in cyberspace. It is painful not to have these things in cyberspace. So rather than obstructing the notion of limitation, why not embrace its benefits?

Clearly the philosophical battle is far from being won. And if there is one big obstacle which stands in the way of Wave's progress, this is it. Wave appears to be the party pooper. Whereas - done right - what Wave and the other TCG members are introducing might easily be seen as a key enabler of liberty in cyberspace.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Wave results
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Fri, 12 Aug 11 7:11 PM
Msg. 05606 of 54959

Hi tkc,

The future's on a knife-edge, here. It isn't altogether clear in the numbers that the strong demand pull - which SKS claims from the unsafe harbour and which would warrant the hiring frenzy - is present.

One way of looking at this is he sees the demand coming and is hiring to fulfil it. In this case, Feeney would be guiding the rate at which hiring is undertaken based on a solid pipeline of business. But I don't see support for the rate of hiring growth in the historical revenue numbers. There's steady but not spectacular growth in the P&L (and an accounting change which obscures the comparisons). And the advance cash needs to be replaced if the $10m treasury is not to diminish.

Another way of looking at things is that SKS is risking the organic growth of the business and its liquidity in favor of the rocket launch he is hoping will materialise. We all know he talks a good game, but unfortunately the years of excessive optimism and missed targets (eg the August contract) tend to create scepticism in the less dreamy listener.

Even the latter strategy is probably the right decision, although it is highly risky. Wave will likely cease to exist as an independent entity unless it can find a market. This links back to his statement in the last CC that becoming a division of a larger entity is something he fears.

So I think it's crossed-fingers time. Hope the pipeline is real.


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