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Re: Downgrade is meaningless

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 09 Aug 11 4:06 AM | 46 view(s)
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Msg. 05586 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 05584 by killthecat)

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Hi cat,

I understand your point.

But the cost of borrowing is actually lowering. The market's panicked flight to quality is headed smack bang towards US Treasuries. Ironical, right. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR:IND

Of course, crowds are mad so the S&P downgrade may cause the catastrophe we have been trying to avoid. A rating isn't just a rating. It's an event. But assuming the initial panic subsides, in my view this should be a minor event rather than a major one. Indeed, the fact Treasury values are rising tends to suggest S&P's worry about US credit-worthiness is really not the underlying issue here. I suspect a good bit of what is happening is that people are worried about everyone worrying. And then there are those who are worried that people are worrying about people being worried. The usual crack pipe logic of the stock market.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Downgrade is meaningless
By: killthecat
in ALEA
Mon, 08 Aug 11 6:42 PM
Msg. 05584 of 54959

Cactus:

Relativity to other types of assets is meaningless if the cost of (government) borrowing goes up. Treasuries may remain the best of the bunch, but they still will cost us more.


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