Hi tkc,
Hey, you are welcome to infer. This is a much easier place to have a sensible conversation. I just wanted to clarify my point, as the timing was a critical issue and I guess I hadn't made it obvious.
What I'm trying to do is operate on a slower cycle than most folks. I don't want to be influenced by unique news releases so much as by my own timelines and expectations, which I measure against the progression of actual results at this juncture. My idea with this post was to expose the machinery for the next move in the optimismometer. You know the reason I raised the number. Now you know what will cause me to lower it if my expectations are not met.
If, for instance, they can manage a sale or two this quarter, I'll consider that things are more-or-less on track for my floor in 2011.
We all operate on the basis of presumptions about the future. I am surprised that mine have not seemed to pan out thus far as - at great effort (!) - I am deliberately cautious. I really am somewhat dumbfounded that a major auto deal and a major chemicals deal can be struck, and otherwise there is so little to see in terms of major deal-flow. They are hiring like they have a growing business. But there's little sign of it in the news-flow. I can't see the claimed expansion in orders from large companies in the reported numbers: as you have pointed out, there's actually a decrease there.
If little changes for the better by year-end, it looks a lot like there will need to be another form of stimulus to get the company going - whether that be a new product or some other market development. But that doesn't sustain my optimismometer, which reached 8 on the presumption that the existing product set is saleable on a general basis. I am reassessing that notion as time passes. It's beginning to look like the exception and not the rule.
I may retreat to a 7 at the end of this quarter, all things equal. I will conclude that Steven cannot make it happen at year-end if things remain stuck and that it is time for a change. I've tolerated his puff on the basis that he might deliver. But SEDs are the third major hardware product launch it appears he may have fluffed after E2 and TPM. That is enough. It may be this is a nut he cannot crack.
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