The recession - for those so naive as to believe the government's denials - has actually already begun. It's the reason why Obama cannot retain the Presidency. When was the last time an incumbant President survived an ongoing recession, anyway?? When that President is already incredibly unpopular, the odds of surviving reelection drop to zero.
In 2007, it was obvious that the Republicans were going to lose to virtually any Democrat. It is even more certain that in 2012, Obama will go down versus ANY Republican. Things are already bad, and huge momentum is building against him.
BTW, I had this predicted in 2007 too: Republicans were going down in 2008, and whoever took over at that point would be a one-termer. I strongly suspect that the next SEVERAL Presidents will be one-termers since it looks like the United States is headed into a prolonged decline - versus a fall-off-the-cliff decline. We could debate which of two would be better, but the downside of a prolonged decline is that it could be decades before we hit bottom and start to recover. IF we recover.
5 buys, 5 sells for 10 long years of no growth
Commentary: Recession hits in 2012, and things don’t get better
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — A slow-growth decade is already raging. You feel it everywhere. And it’s going to get worse, much worse. A recession is virtually certain for 2012, in an angry, volatile presidential election year. May morph into a 1930’s-style depression.
That’s the clear message we get from Gary Shilling, one of the world’s foremost economic forecasters, long-time Forbes columnist and author of “The Age of Deleveraging,” where you’ll find tips and warnings: The American economy is facing a huge shortfall in the 2011-2020 decade. We need real GDP growth of at least 3.3% just to keep unemployment stable.
But that’s impossible. America will be lucky to get an average 2% real growth, says Shilling. In fact, it’s worse: America faces the possibility of 10 long years of no growth. Or, more accurately, a decade of less-than-zero growth. Plus high-stress chronic unemployment. Plus accelerating global unrest, regional conflicts, increasing Pentagon budgets.
In his latest newsletter, one of his scariest ever, Shilling’s scenarios for 2012 and the long years ahead feel more like a summer blockbuster that’s come alive with a vengeance.
Wall Street greed worse since 2008 … will soon self-destruct
Yes, a 2012 recession is coming, says Shilling, because “much of the excesses and financial leverage built up in past decades, especially in the financial sector globally and among U.S consumers, remain to be worked off.”
Reagan and the Bushes expanded government, added debt: “The federal deficits and Fed excess bank reserves” fueled the Fed and Treasury’s failed “attempts to bail out the nearly collapsing U.S. private sector” just made matters worse for the economy by focusing on banks not jobs.
As a result of the blunders by our fiscal and monetary leaders, the “private and public deleveraging will take years to complete and keep economic growth subdued.” As a result, in coming decades “recessions will be deeper and more frequent.” Yes, worse.
Shilling exhibits his usual coolly cautionary yet wisely analytical tone: “The usual trigger” for a recession, “a tightening of monetary policy,” raising rates as former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker did a generation ago, “is unlikely in today’s weak climate, but others are at hand.”
Full story: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-buys-5-sells-for-10-long-years-of-no-growth-2011-07-19?dist=beforebell
Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months
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