July 13, 2011 - Bachmann Surging In 2012 GOP Race As Romney Is Flat, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Obama Tops All Leading Republican Challengers

Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, a relative newcomer in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, is surging and now trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 25 - 14 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has 12 percent, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 10 percent. No other contender is over 6 percent.

This compares to a June 8 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing Romney with 25 percent, Palin with 15 percent and Bachmann with 6 percent, sixth in a field of 10 candidates in the survey.

President Barack Obama tops all leading GOP White House hopefuls, hitting the all- important 50-percent mark against every candidate but Romney:

• 47 - 41 percent over Romney, unchanged from June 8;
• 50 - 38 percent over Bachmann, who was not matched against Obama June 8;
• 53 - 34 percent over Sarah Palin, compared to 53 - 36 percent June 8;
• 50 - 37 percent over Perry, who was not matched against Obama June 8.

"Gov. Mitt Romney remains ahead of the GOP presidential pack as U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann has zoomed into second place," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "With almost a dozen candidates and most of them not very well known, even to GOP activists, Gov. Romney's lead remains. Gov. Rick Perry, who is still a maybe candidate, breaks into double-digits and runs fourth, an indication that he could be a serious contender should he run."

"The question about Rep. Bachmann is whether she is the flavor of the month, like Donald Trump was for a while, or does she have staying power? Perhaps more than any of the other GOP contenders, Bachmann's fortunes may depend on whether Governors Palin or Perry get into the race. All three of them are likely to appeal to the GOP's Tea Party constituency."

Rounding out the possible Republican presidential field are entrepreneur Herman Cain at 6 percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul at 5 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 5 percent, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 3 percent, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan each at 1 percent or less.

If Perry does not run, Romney would lead with 28 percent, followed by Bachmann with 16 percent and Palin with 13 percent.

If Perry were to run, but not Palin, Romney would lead Bachmann 28 - 17 percent with Perry remaining at 10 percent.

"This would indicate that Romney and Bachmann would benefit most if Perry or Palin do not run," said Brown.

In the November matchups, Obama's margin over the Republican hopefuls stems from his huge margins among women voters that swamp the GOP candidates' small edge with men. For instance, matched against Romney, the president carries women 50 - 39 percent, but loses men by only 45 - 44 percent.

Against Bachmann, Obama leads 52 - 35 percent among women and 48 - 40 percent among men.

The same dynamic is at work when voters are asked if the president deserves a second term. While the overall number is a 47 - 47 percent dead heat, women think he deserves a second term 50 - 43 percent, while men think he does not by 51 - 43 percent.

"The gender gap is shaping up as a major factor in the 2012 presidential campaign, bigger perhaps than the 12-point swing in 2008," Brown said.

Among independent voters, Romney tops Obama 42 - 40 percent. But Obama leads among independents, a key voting group:

• 46 - 36 percent over Perry;
• 43 - 40 percent over Bachmann;
• 50 - 33 percent over Palin.

From July 5 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,311 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary included 913 voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.

July 13, 2011 - Bachmann Surging In 2012 GOP Race As Romney Is Flat, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Obama Tops All Leading Republican Challengers

Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, a relative newcomer in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, is surging and now trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 25 - 14 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has 12 percent, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 10 percent. No other contender is over 6 percent.

This compares to a June 8 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing Romney with 25 percent, Palin with 15 percent and Bachmann with 6 percent, sixth in a field of 10 candidates in the survey.

President Barack Obama tops all leading GOP White House hopefuls, hitting the all- important 50-percent mark against every candidate but Romney:

• 47 - 41 percent over Romney, unchanged from June 8;
• 50 - 38 percent over Bachmann, who was not matched against Obama June 8;
• 53 - 34 percent over Sarah Palin, compared to 53 - 36 percent June 8;
• 50 - 37 percent over Perry, who was not matched against Obama June 8.

"Gov. Mitt Romney remains ahead of the GOP presidential pack as U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann has zoomed into second place," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "With almost a dozen candidates and most of them not very well known, even to GOP activists, Gov. Romney's lead remains. Gov. Rick Perry, who is still a maybe candidate, breaks into double-digits and runs fourth, an indication that he could be a serious contender should he run."

"The question about Rep. Bachmann is whether she is the flavor of the month, like Donald Trump was for a while, or does she have staying power? Perhaps more than any of the other GOP contenders, Bachmann's fortunes may depend on whether Governors Palin or Perry get into the race. All three of them are likely to appeal to the GOP's Tea Party constituency."

Rounding out the possible Republican presidential field are entrepreneur Herman Cain at 6 percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul at 5 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 5 percent, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 3 percent, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan each at 1 percent or less.

If Perry does not run, Romney would lead with 28 percent, followed by Bachmann with 16 percent and Palin with 13 percent.

If Perry were to run, but not Palin, Romney would lead Bachmann 28 - 17 percent with Perry remaining at 10 percent.

"This would indicate that Romney and Bachmann would benefit most if Perry or Palin do not run," said Brown.

In the November matchups, Obama's margin over the Republican hopefuls stems from his huge margins among women voters that swamp the GOP candidates' small edge with men. For instance, matched against Romney, the president carries women 50 - 39 percent, but loses men by only 45 - 44 percent.

Against Bachmann, Obama leads 52 - 35 percent among women and 48 - 40 percent among men.

The same dynamic is at work when voters are asked if the president deserves a second term. While the overall number is a 47 - 47 percent dead heat, women think he deserves a second term 50 - 43 percent, while men think he does not by 51 - 43 percent.

"The gender gap is shaping up as a major factor in the 2012 presidential campaign, bigger perhaps than the 12-point swing in 2008," Brown said.

Among independent voters, Romney tops Obama 42 - 40 percent. But Obama leads among independents, a key voting group:

• 46 - 36 percent over Perry;
• 43 - 40 percent over Bachmann;
• 50 - 33 percent over Palin.

From July 5 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,311 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary included 913 voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.

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