The June jobs report highlights a significant problem for President Obama, for any incumbent, for the U.S. stock market, and for consumer-based business.
June Jobs Report: the Ugly, the Ugly and the Ugly
By Daniel Gross | Contrary Indicator – July 8, 2011
If Hollywood were to make a film about the June jobs report, it would be called The Ugly, The Ugly and The Ugly.
Typically, the monthly jobs report contains some good news, some bad news and some ugly news. And optimism had been building over the June figure, in part because alternate methods of measurement had indicated higher jobs growth. TrimTabs earlier this week said its data indicated the economy added 171,000 new jobs in June, while ADP on Thursday suggested 157,000 private-sector jobs had been added in the month. Add in the slight decline in unemployment claims, falling gas taxes and good preliminary news on retail sales, and there was some hope that the soft patch of April and May was over.
This morning's ugly, ugly, ugly jobs figure throws a large bucket of ice-cold water on that thesis.
The Ugly #1. The headline number showed that a mere 18,000 payroll jobs were added in June. As Barry Ritholtz of the Big Picture frequently points out, when you're working off a base of 130 million or so, a gain of 18,000 (or a loss of 18,000) is statistically meaningless. The numbers show that the conservative recovery continues, with the private sector adding jobs and the public sector cutting them. The services, mining, and leisure and hospitality sectors all added jobs. In all, the private sector added 54,000 jobs. But government has been shedding jobs consistently for the past year. It did so again in June, slashing 39,000 jobs. Government spending may be higher, but employment at the federal, state and local level is falling.
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The Ugly #2. The unemployment rate ticked up to 9.2 percent.
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Ugly #3. The trend is not our friend.
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Full article: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daniel-gross/june-jobs-report-ugly-ugly-ugly-132111747.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
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