New poll shows Democrat Hochul with surprising six-point lead
By Jerry Zremski
News Washington Bureau Chief
Updated: May 23, 2011, 7:53 AM
New poll shows Hochul with surprising six-point lead
Democrat Kathleen C. Hochul now holds a six-point edge in the race for Congress in the 26th District, the latest poll in the race found late Sunday.
Conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, the poll shows Hochul with 42 percent, Republican Jane L. Corwin with 36 percent and independent Tea Party candidate Jack Davis with 13 percent.
The results closely track those of a Siena Research Institute poll that Saturday showed Hochul up by 4 points.
But unlike the Siena tally, the new poll of 1,106 likely voters shows Hochul with a lead well outside the margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent. PPP conducted the poll Saturday and Sunday.
"Kathy Hochul's possible upset victory Tuesday is partially a reflection of an unusual three-way race," said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. But it's also indicative of the new Republican majority becoming very unpopular very fast. Barack Obama is more popular in this district than John Boehner."
Boehner has a 28 percent favorability rating, the poll found — not far from the 25 percent favorability rating that an earlier poll found for former Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Boehner recently campaigned for Corwin in Lancaster, while Republicans are trying to paint Hochul as a puppet whose strings would be pulled by Pelosi.
Corwin's unpopularity — a key factor in the Siena poll — showed itself again in the new poll. Some 52 percent of those surveyed had an unfavorable view of Corwin, the PPP poll found.
Davis fared even worse, with 62 percent of voters viewing him negatively.
But only 37 percent have a negative view of Hochul, while 51 percent viewed her positively.
Given that the district's enrollment is heavily Republican, there are still ways Corwin could win, the polling firm noted. Most notably, Davis' support is collapsing, and if it continues to do so, Corwin could benefit if those voters flock to her.
"A Hochul win is by no means certain — the race remains very close, special elections are tricky to poll, and three-way races are even trickier to poll," said Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling. "But the fact that we're even talking about this race is a reflection of how far out of favor the new GOP House majority already is with the voting public."
Unlike the Siena poll, which found Medicare to be the key issue in the race, the PPP included no detailed questions about which issues are pushing voters one way or another.
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