My thought regarding silver's bull market is that it all depends on one's timeframe.
I think silver will top $100 and probably $125 in the next few years, but the high it established relative to gold will probably stand for two years, possibly a lot longer. Does that mean that the bull market in silver is over? Of course not. But traders will probably be steering clear of it for a while after getting burned by it in 2011.
I wouldn't recommend silver at the current price. Its downside risk greatly exceeds its upside potential. But if I can buy it in the $20s later this year, or if I can buy it for $38 in 2013, I might load up.
But I probably won't. Gold's reward-to-risk ratio is far more attractive to me in the long run... and long-term investing seems to be what I'm best at. It's certainly what makes me comfortable, and I really wish at this point that I had put EVERYTHING into physical (both gold *and* silver) back in 2001. I wouldn't even have to think about it, and right now, I'd actually be ahead of my current position - which I've had to work hard to build and maintain.
Irwin Kellner
May 10, 2011, 12:12 a.m. EDT
Hi-yo Silver, away!
Commentary: Metal’s drop doesn’t mean bull market over
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — The massive decline in silver prices last week does not necessarily mean that the bull market in silver is over.
True, the recent run-up in prices was quite astounding. In just six months, silver prices doubled, almost hitting its all-time high set back in 1980.
Silver also outpaced other commodities — even gold. For years, it took about 63 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. By last week, however, that ratio had been cut in half, to 32.
The article continues: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hi-yo-silver-and-away-2011-05-10?link=mw_home_kiosk
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