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Re: Gold Prediction: TAKE NOTE

By: fizzy in ROUND | Recommend this post (0)
Thu, 28 Apr 11 7:52 PM | 68 view(s)
Boardmark this board | De's Test Board 		Msg. 32716 of 45510
(This msg. is a reply to 32715 by Decomposed)
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What would you be doing NOW, De? It is tempting to dump more money into either gold or silver, bullion or miners. But are any of those really a good probability bet after such run ups? It seems like a long time with no BREATHING (basing or pull backs) of any significance. And the dollar is, of course, the counter-play ... down, down, down. Seems like Obama can't get no respect for his management of the political economy!!

I would like to get a lot more money out of dollars but it hurts to do it just now... not so much because I think the dollar is "worth more" (it isn't worth much of anything except as a vehicle for paying taxes, and taxes, and taxes!) but because it seems there should be some massive corrections in here somewhere!!!

I bought about $35k of silver IN AN UNALLOCATED FORM (similar to an ETF, I guess) when it pulled back to ...was it $34?...a month or two ago (how time flies in a currency collapse .. I can't even keep track of price and time!! I guess I could look at a chart, but what exactly does it matter??).

I was thinking last Friday that a near $50 top that I ought to maybe sell it and, maybe, switch to the gold ETF form (or more bullion?). I thought silver might finally be ready to really correct. But it isn't...though gold is surging.

In the final stages of the hard core dollar collapse to worthlessness (where all the pension puppies discover their government retirement fund totals, which drove them to 'work' in the 'safety' of a government or quasi government entity, can be redeemed for the grand total exchange value of one McDonald's "Big Mac" with fries) ANY price for silver and gold will be "cheap" by the next hour.

But I don't think we are there just yet. Although this last six months as got me to start thinking "Your days are numbered"! So, where is the big pullback to throw off all the doubting hordes, who still think the government "bright leaders" can be trusted to not drive the bus off the cliff?


I have come to realize that men are not born to be free. Liberty is a need felt by a small class of people whom nature has endowed with nobler minds than the mass of men. -Napoleon


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Gold Prediction: TAKE NOTE
By: Decomposed in ROUND
Thu, 28 Apr 11 6:45 PM 		Msg. 32715 of 45510

re: "Your prediction record is pretty darn good, De!"

Thank you, fizzy.

I don't like to post predictions unless I'm pretty darned sure that I'm right. Last year, I missed one. When gold was $1,010, I posted that it would be $1,250 by . . . April, or so. It got to $1,225, then pulled back. $1,250 took another three months, I think - which left me assessing my result as CLOSE, but no.

In truth, I don't care about about the timeframe as long as I'm more right than wrong, which is really how I feel about last year. The important thing is to be IN during these surges, and out during pullbacks.

Timing the exits is, by far, harder than timing entries. In most cases, before I'll sell large number s of my stocks, I have to be certain enough of a pullback that I'm willing to pay taxes on my gains AND risk being left behind by long-term undervalued companies I've invested a lot of time and energy in. Currently, Minefinders appears to have done that to me. I sold MFN only a few weeks ago, at $15.10 and below. It is now $17.21, and silver stocks have captured the market's imagination like no other commodities.

As I said, if I'm more often right than wrong - and I have been, handily - then I'm happy.

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