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Re: SKS selling again

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Thu, 28 Apr 11 5:56 PM | 54 view(s)
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Msg. 05267 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 05262 by tkc)

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Hi tkc,

Bear in mind my optimismometer is deliberately not a measure of my expectations of price. It's meant to be a slow burn thing - mainly to reflect my sense of future demand based on announced sales and analysis of quarterly results.

And while I think these stock sales were dumb from a public perceptions viewpoint, personally I expect spectacular insensitivity and self-indulgence from these folks. After a long sequence of selfish behaviours, selfishness isn't surprising to me. Rather like Joe Biden's gaffs, at some point it stops making the news.

One thing the stock sales don't do at this point is affect my sense of confidence about the likely saleability of Wave's product. As you know, I'm more of an evidential (rather than an inferential) type of poster. At least, I try to be. I look for concrete information about demand. My optimismometer would reflect news about actual sales (eg PWC, auto, BASF) and extrapolate my sense of the future on that basis. It would not be influenced by expectations of what may or may not happen to them as a result of secondary measures/events/indicators - eg when the Wavoids believed an avalanche of sales would follow from a single order, I thought that was a mistake of this type. I think the stock sale falls into the latter category: you can draw too much from it.

But I do take your point - I would not be surprised to see the stock sales influence the price some on future rainy days. Folks who want the price to decline glory in that kind of information. It's damn foolish to help them, in my view.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
SKS selling again
By: tkc
in ALEA
Thu, 28 Apr 11 4:51 AM
Msg. 05262 of 54959

Hi CF, What does that do for your optimeter? He and Mac selling w/in days? It's just like Daddy. Instill confidence? After all, Daddy was right. Or do you think he just needed to diversify? I'm really bummed!


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