(Stratfors)

Intelligence Guidance: Week of April 17, 2011

April 18, 2011 | 1036 GMT

New Guidance

1. Iraq: Attempts to extend the United States’ military presence in Iraq beyond the 2011 deadline for withdrawal stipulated by the current Status of Forces Agreement between Washington and Baghdad have thus far foundered. Can U.S. overtures yet succeed? Can Baghdad accept a residual American military presence beyond 2011? The decision must be made well ahead of the end-of-the-year deadline, so this quarter and next will be critical for the United States, Iraq and the region.

2. Iran: With several regimes still on the precipice, the situation in the Persian Gulf region remains significant. But Tehran’s foremost priority is Iraq, and the issue of the fate of American forces there is coming to a head. How does Tehran plan to play the coming months in terms of consolidating its position in Iraq? How aggressively does it intend to push its advantage?

3. Afghanistan/Pakistan: Any meaningful settlement in Afghanistan will require Pakistan. How do we understand the formation of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Joint Commission on peace and reconciliation announced this weekend? Does it have the potential to have a significant impact on the situation in Afghanistan or not? How will the Taliban, who perceive themselves to be winning in Afghanistan, view the commission and its efforts?

Existing Guidance

1. Israel/Palestinian territories: Rocket and mortar fire continued over the weekend while Israel and Hamas demanded that the other halt offensive actions. The repercussions of a more aggressive Israeli action could quickly take on profound significance, so we need to examine both offensive and cease-fire scenarios, as well as look at the range of responses from key players. Can a cease-fire be obtained, and can it last? How hard is Iran able and willing to push matters?

2. Yemen: President Ali Abdullah Saleh is now being called on by the Gulf Cooperation Council to hand power to his vice president. How significant is Saudi leverage in bringing about a change in the Yemeni leadership? Can the Saudis bring enough pressure to force a change before there is further destabilization in Yemen?

3. Libya: With neither side demonstrating the ability to impose a new military reality on the ground in Libya, we need to continue to focus on what happens next. There is plenty of talk of potential cease-fire scenarios, and Turkey, among others, is stepping in to mediate. Under what conditions might a cease-fire be possible? Are there any conditions that are acceptable to the opposition, Gadhafi supporters, the other Arab states and the Western coalition? If the Western coalition accepts a stalemate, how do the opposition forces in eastern Libya react? There have been suggestions of expanding the mission in Libya to one that includes ground forces. How likely are these options? How far is Europe willing to go? How far is Washington willing to commit?

4. Syria: How much force is the Syrian regime willing to use to quell continuing protests? Do Syria’s internal troubles open the country to exploitation by outside powers? What are Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey doing in Syria to ensure their interests?

5. Egypt: Protests have flared up, but not on the same scale of the February unrest that brought down Hosni Mubarak. How representative are these protests of the general sentiment? The government is conducting investigations of former regime officials, including Mubarak himself. Will this placate the population? How do the elite respond? Will the potential of Mubarak being prosecuted serve as an example and affect the decision-making of other leaders in the region facing similar pressures?

6. EU: Anti-EU sentiment is on the rise across the Continent as populations lose patience with austerity measures and bailouts. Finland, facing elections and a rising euroskeptic party, is complicating the Portuguese bailout, and Iceland’s decision not to repay the United Kingdom for lost bank deposits from Landsbanken shows citizens’ waning interest in joining the bloc. Can the Europeans continue to keep a lid on the crisis within the eurozone?

EURASIA

April 18: The EU Foreign Affairs Council and EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.
April 18: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is scheduled to visit London to meet with British Prime Minister David Cameron and discuss European Union cooperation and the unrest in North Africa.
April 18: European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso will visit Kiev to meet with Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich to discuss relations between the European Union and Ukraine.
April 18: Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Dejiang will be in Ukraine for vice premier-level China-Ukraine Cooperation Committee meetings.
April 18: Hungary’s parliament will vote on the new constitutional bill proposed by Fidesz.
April 18-20: Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari will continue a visit to the Czech Republic.
April 19: Representatives from nuclear nations and various international bodies will attend the Summit on Safe and Innovative Use of Nuclear Energy in the Ukrainian capital.
April 19: Deputy Russian Prime Minister Igor Sechin will visit Kiev to meet with Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development and Trade Andriy Kliuyev to discuss natural gas supplies to Ukraine.
April 19: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit Belgrade to meet with Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic.
April 19: A Croatian National Congress will be held in Mostar, Bosnia Herzegovina, to discuss the political situation in the Federation of Bosnia Herzegovina and the status of Croats in Bosnia Herzegovina.
April 20: Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon will deliver the state-of-the-nation address to the Tajik parliament.
April 20: The Commonwealth of Independent States Economic Court will hear the Belarus lawsuit which looks to abolish Russia’s export duty on petroleum products.
April 21: Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will address the Russian Duma regarding the government’s work.
April 21: Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko will deliver the annual address to the nation.
April 21: Spanish Airport Authority (AENA) workers are scheduled to strike for 24 hours to protest the partial privatization of AENA.
April 24: Armenia will hold Armenian Genocide Commemoration Day, marking the 1915-1917 killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire.
April 24: The Islamic Party of Azerbaijan is scheduled to hold a rally in Baku, to demand a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the prevention of Islamophobia and the release of party members in pre-trial detention.

MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA

April 18: There will be a joint session of the Iranian Oil Ministry and Majlis Energy Commission for the purpose of improving the security of oil projects.
April 18: All stakeholders in the Darfur peace process including the rebel group Liberation and Justice Movement, government officials, internally displaced persons and tribal leaders are to meet in the Qatari capital of Doha in order to sign four chapters of a peace agreement.
April 18-19: The 2011 Iranian Oil, Gas, Refining & Petrochemical Exhibition Show will continue, with 1,390 domestic and foreign companies participating. Countries represented include Spain, Austria, Russia, Canada, Thailand, Germany, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Italy, the United Arab Emirates, India, Norway, Singapore, Denmark, Canada, China, Japan and China.
April 18-19: The Kuwaiti Oil Ministry will continue hosting oil and energy ministers from Asia at a round table.
April 18-19: An international conference on piracy, named “Global Threat, Regional Responses: Forging A Common Approach to Maritime Piracy,� is being jointly convened by DP World and the United Arab Emirates’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Dubai.
April 18-22: The Indian Air Chief Marshal P. V. Naik will continue a visit to Turkey along with top naval and army officials.
April 19: An event will occur at Bkirki’s Maronite Patriarchate in Lebanon according to Maronite Patriarch Beshara Boutros al-Rai, who declined to say more due to secrecy needs.
April 19-20: Health care workers in Turkey will strike to protest poor working conditions and management.
April 20: Bahrain’s High Court will hold a hearing on Bahraini citizens who are being charged with cooperating with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.
April 20: India will launch the ResourceSat-2, an advanced remote sensory satellite, alongside the YouthSat, a joint Russo-Indian nanosatellite, and the X-Sat microsatellite. They will be for studying natural resources, stellar and atmospheric studies, and imaging, respectively.
April 22: The defense secretaries of India and Pakistan will meet to discuss the disputed areas of Sir Creek and Siachen.
April 23-24: The First Congress of Azerbaijanis living in Turkey will be held to promote pan-Azerbaijani relations around the world.
April 24: Voter information cards will be distributed in Turkey.

EAST ASIA

April 18-19: U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will lead an eight-member U.S. Congressional delegation to South Korea to seek parliamentary ratification for a bilateral free trade agreement.
April 18-21: Malaysian Foreign Minister Anifah Aman will continue an official visit to China.
April 18-22: An Indonesian congressional delegation led by Speaker of House of Representative Marzuki Alie will continue an official goodwill visit to China.
April 19: Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa will pay a working visit to China.
April 19-20: Uzbek President Islam Karimov will pay a state visit to China.
April 20-27: Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard will embark on a weeklong Asian tour. She will visit Japan from April 20-23, South Korea from April 24-25, and then Beijing from April 25-27.
April 21-22: Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn will visit South Korea and talk with South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung Hwan.

AMERICAS

April 18: Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo will wrap up a visit to Ecuador to discuss each country’s migration policies.
April 18: Italian Defense Minister Iznazio La Russa will be in Washington to meet with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates.
April 19: The National Electoral Council of Ecuador and the Organization of American States (OAS) will sign an agreement for the OAS to observe Ecuador’s constitutional referendum scheduled for May 7.
April 21: Tariff preferences between Peru and Venezuela are set to expire.
April 22: Venezuela’s withdrawal from the Andean Community of Nations will become official.
April 22: The presentation of the pending free trade agreement between the United States and Colombia will start.

AFRICA

April 18: The French container shipping group CMA CGM will resume commercial shipping services to the Ivory Coast capital and port city of Abidjan.
April 18: South Africa will end a 33 week moratorium on mineral prospecting applications and install a new South African Mineral Resources Administration system for submitting new applications.
April 18: The ruling Sudanese National Congress Party and the Southern Sudanese Sudan People’s Liberation Movement’s Joint Technical Committee will meet in Abyei to oversee the Kadugli agreement which includes the deployment of Joint Integrated Units in the region as well as the withdrawal of all unauthorized forces.
April 19: The Nigerian House of Assembly is scheduled to resume sitting and has stated that it intends to review the Petroleum Industry Bill.
April 20: The deadline set by the Somali Transitional Federal Government for all organizations and companies working in the energy, water and mineral fields to register will pass.
April 24: Chad is scheduled to hold presidential elections.
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