Surprisingly tough Tennessee election reveals House GOP has base problem
A hard-fought victory in once-safe Republican territory came as polls show conservative support on the wane for GOP congressional majorities.
Republicans face a dire predicament heading into the midterm year with independent voters breaking away from President Donald Trump and a conservative base losing faith in the GOP majorities on Capitol Hill.
That point was driven home by the surprisingly difficult effort it took to eke out a win Tuesday in a conservative district in Tennessee.
Republicans had to spend several million dollars to retain the seat, by about 9 percentage points, after both Trump and Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) won the district by 22 percentage points last year.
Tuesday’s outcome gives a temporary boost to House Republicans in need of every vote possible to pass anything with their historically small majority, but it sent a warning shot to several dozen lawmakers from seats that the party presumed were completely safe heading into the November midterms.
“I don’t know how much you can read into any individual special election, but certainly they are a data point. And I think there’s a lot of data points at this point showing that the dissatisfaction with the public is real. And naturally that would manifest itself in the midterms,” Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-California) said.
But the underperformance in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District backs up some research showing a lack of energy among conservative base voters. Republican Mark Green won reelection to the district by more than 20 percentage points in 2022 and 2024, before resigning over the summer.
Democrats estimate that about 70 House seats held by Republicans are more friendly than this Tennessee seat.
more:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/12/03/house-republicans-base-problem/
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