Tennessee’s special House election should be a GOP cakewalk — but voters are really sick of Trump
In November 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee’s 7th congressional district by 22 percentage points, as Republicans romped to victory in what has become one of the reddest states in the country.
A year later, there is a very different story emerging in Tennessee’s 7th district. Both parties are pouring millions of dollars into the district for a special election next week to replace former Republican Rep. Mark Green, who retired in July. And Democrats have a puncher’s chance of scoring an upset.
The sudden competitiveness of a special House election in a heavily gerrymandered Republican district is a good summation of Trump and the GOP’s current political freefall — and the rising political fortunes of Democrats. By all accounts, Republican Matt Van Epps, the former Tennessee General Services commissioner, is leading his opponent, Democrat Aftyn Behn, a member of the Tennessee House of Representatives, in the polls. (Though on Wednesday late last week, a stunning poll from Emerson College/The Hill showed Van Epps ahead by only two points, with a roughly four-point margin of error.)
But with Democrats overperforming in special elections in 2025 by around 13 points — as well as a couple of unexpected double-digit victories in gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, plus winning two statewide races in Georgia by nearly 25 points — seemingly even an R+22 seat could be up for grabs.
This is a preview of Michael A. Cohen's latest column.
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