Summary: The White House held a high stakes presser Thursday afternoon, as President Donald Trump also again convened his top national security officials in the situation room to hear intelligence officials and make key decisions on the Israel-Iran war, just prior. Of course, the biggest question that remains is: will the US directly enter the war against Iran?
• White House quoting Trump: Amid speculation regarding negotiations with Iran, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next 2 weeks. • Leavitt: Trump thinks 'substantial chance' of Iran negotiations • Leavitt: Witkoff has been in touch with Iran • Leavitt: Trump always interested in diplomatic solutions • Leavitt: it's the US belief that Iran has never been closer to a nuclear weapon • Leavitt: Iran can and should make a deal or face consequences • Leavitt: Trump remains in contact with Netanyahu • Leavitt: Iran is in a weakened position and we have sent a deal • Leavitt: Iran has all that it needs to achieve a nuclear weapon, it just needs a 'decision'
Oil slides on the "two weeks" announcement, as the can gets kicked down the road:
The most pressing issues at stake:
• Last ditch diplomacy working? Reuters reports in a breaking development that Iran held direct talks with US over de-escalation and potentially restarting nuclear negotiations. • The Guardian reports that Trump only wants to strike Iran only if the US can destroy the Fordow enrichment facility. • Destruction of Fordow would at least require the 30k pound bunker buster bomb, but still may not be effective in ending Iran's enrichment capacity. • Netanyahu says that while regime change in Tehran is not the current goal, the option is on the table. • Tactical nuke on the table? • Will the Iranians close the Strait of Hormuz, choking off global oil shipping? • Reports of US bases in the region taking protective and defensive measures • Israeli intelligence official says 'imminent collapse' of Iranian government is "far from the truth" - NBC reports • Iran is warning that a "third party intervention" would spark an immediate military response • Netanyahu has said the US has been "helping a lot" - without defining specifics
WATCH (scheduled to begin at 1300ET):
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Update(1210ET): Just an hour away from a high-stakes White House press briefing, and a report in The Guardian has really upped the ante...
Donald Trump has suggested to defense officials it would make sense for the US to launch strikes against Iran only if the so-called “bunker buster” bomb was guaranteed to destroy the critical uranium enrichment facility at Fordow, according to people familiar with the deliberations.
Trump was told that dropping the GBU-57s, a 13.6-tonne (30,000lb) bomb would effectively eliminate Fordow but he does not appear to be fully convinced, the people said, and has held off authorizing strikes as he also awaits the possibility that the threat of US involvement would lead Iran to talks.
The effectiveness of GBU-57s has been a topic of deep contention at the Pentagon since the start of Trump’s term, according to two defense officials who were briefed that perhaps only a tactical nuclear weapon could be capable of destroying Fordow because of how deeply it is buried.
Tactical nukes now? And there's much, much more that needs to be considered. Likely full American military entry in to the war would spiral into full regime change in Iran. What comes next?
Iran as a society is much larger, and with an even more complex ethnic division than neighboring Iraq... and we all remember the pandora's box and US 'forever war' very well. Soon after Saddam's toppling came the rise of ISIS and hellish decade-plus long Syrian proxy war. Have the politicians already forgotten? (or more likely they don't care...) Adding to the chaos would be the IRGC likely closing the vital Strait of Hormuz - which would send oil prices skyrocketing.
By the day's end we are likely to find out whether Trump will stick by being negotiator in chief... or war hawk in chief... will he listen to the likes of Tulsi Gabbard and Tucker Carlson, or to Lindsey Graham and Mark Levin? Meanwhile...
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