http://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/they-lied-us-about-iraqs-wmds-theyve-taken-it-another-level-ukraine-hitchens
I'm posting the article because it is from someone other than me, so you can argue with the author if you don't like it. I am not personally expert on some data points in the article. On the other hand, there are LOTS of additional, relevant, data points I know of which are not even mentioned.
At the end of the day, here's my opinion: Effectively all the territory Russia has now captured is approximately all Russia likely has any interest in. The only additional piece Russia would likely want, which I am aware of, is Odessa. (largely ethnic Russian and major port city).
What distinguishes what Russia is interested in vs. what it would rather not control? That is the same as what distinguishes Eastern Ukraine from Western. The answer is:
(1) Large percent of ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine (who, by and large, NEVER wanted to be part of Ukraine to begin with...because the Ukraine government does not, and AFAIK never represented them, their preferences, and their culture.
(2) Eastern Ukraine constitutes enough of a geographic buffer zone to give Russia the security it has required at so many points in the past (you really should read some history if you don't know this like the back of your hand).
In other words, Russia has the piece it said it needed for security, and that piece is substantially easier to hold because it is ethnic Russian, anyway.
I expect the complexion of the war to change a lot, going forward, if Russia feels compelled to keep fighting. In particular, I think it might just blacktop Kiev, since that is not part of the buffer zone and is overwhelmingly ethnic Ukrainian.
I hear so little discussion from anyone about the fact that people ought to have the right to secede when they do not feel represented properly -- and certainly when they feel actively oppressed.
Again, Eastern Ukraine ought never to have been lumped in with Western Ukraine to begin with: Mixing TWO very distinct cultures and ethnic groups is like mixing oil and water....
Or worse: http://www.coreproductsco.com/2020/08/04/5-toxic-chemical-combinations-you-should-never-mix/
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