I'd say get to 2% or 2 1/4% across the board first.
Once you have that, which is achievable, then think whether you need 3%.
If only Germany, say, had listened to the US and UK asking for it for more than a decade, Europe might have been in a much better position versus Russia.
As it is, among the larger economies, only the UK (which spends 2.2% of GDP) and France (1.9%) have halfway decent militaries. And France has hardly helped Ukraine at all.
If Germany spends 2% of its GDP (instead of 1.3%) going forward and they become a serious contributor to European defence, then that is surely sufficient to combat any conventional Russian threat. Italy doesn't pull its weight, spending 1.5% of GDP. Spain is another freeloader, spending 1.4% of GDP.
Maybe we also need satellite defences against a nuclear attack but I am not sure whether that isn't already taken care of through NATO to the extent it is feasible.
Same goes for Japan. Currently 1.1% of GDP. And Canada (1.3%).
All of these increases would share the burden with the US too, which seems fair to me. With 2% of the GDP of more than a billion people in the West, Russia would not represent any sort of threat. It's economy is too small. And that leaves only China as a concern.
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