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http://min.news/en/economy/a5c27ea004a6eb869217c261ea233d8a.html
The U.S. is heading towards a crossroads of “stagflation”
2022-06-04 04:58 HKT
Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, has warned people in the past six months that inflation will be inevitable.
After the US inflation data this week and the dismal employment data released last week, the market pays more attention to retail sales data to judge whether the US will fall into stagflation in the future.
The fact is, from the US official data released on May 14, the US retail sales data in April was 0% month-on-month, which was less than 1% as expected .
To make matters worse, the US April core retail sales data fell 0.8% from the previous month, and is expected to increase by 0.3%.
It is worth noting that the US retail sales data in March broke out before, recording 9.8%, a new high since May last year.
The U.S. is heading towards a crossroads of "stagflation"
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What does the stagnant retail sales data indicate if there is no growth? Are Americans reluctant to spend money?
Michael Hartnett believes that in the second half of 2021, the market may mainly show stagflation. In the context of current inflation, the US economy has not recovered as strongly as everyone thought, and the risk of stagflation has quietly come.
Recently, the prices of raw materials and commodities have soared, and the US consumer price index has recorded the largest increase in more than a decade. Coupled with high inflation and low employment, one cannot help but think of stagflation in the United States in the 1970s .
From 1970 to 1983, the United States fell into an unprecedented economic stagflation in history.
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