He's got this war almost exactly right so far, with logistics issues and the lack of training of the Russian army and the motivation of the Ukrainians key.
Here it is.
"In the east and south, Ukrainian attacks - especially attacks against exposed supply lines and undermanned Russian combat forces - will be critically important in the next 2-3 weeks. It will break the Russian offensives."
He's a brave predictor but then he's miles better informed that your normal online poster.
To me, the countryside in the east looks better suited to Russian armour, unless it's turned to mud by storms. It's obvious that Putin wants to take the entire coast and with that under control, he threatens commerce not just in Ukraine but the Danube corridor too.
We absolutely must arm up the Ukrainians who have the skills and bravery to win this if we provide the weapons and the economic backing. In spite of the oil, Russia is going to be struggling.
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