or more fully Director, Russia Studies at CNA. Senior Adjunct Fellow, CNAS who follows Russian military capabilities, operations & strategy.
"I try not to make too many predictions. I think given all the problems in the Russian campaign, delusional assumptions, an unworkable concept of operations, little prepared for a sustained war like this, I give it ~3 more weeks before this is an exhausted force. Exhausted in terms of combat effectiveness. What follows next I don’t know. Maybe a ceasefire where both sides reorganize and resupply, maybe a settlement. It depends on the course of the war and the situation in Russia. End. That’s not indicative of either side winning, or the war ending. I can’t predict how the next few weeks will go. Just looking at it from my limited perspective, I see this phase of it as bounded, especially given how the war began."
http://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499967950975115269
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