I am interested in whether it is the facts of the economy or the spin around economic numbers that has an impact on election results.
My instinct is that it is mostly the former. People experience things for themselves. They find their own pockets empty or full and vote accordingly.
So the spin on the release doesn't matter all that much. There was a partial recovery as people eased off the brakes. But the economy is a bit smaller than it was before and there are lots of unemployed people etc.
Trump can try to pretend things are going wonderfully on the economic front because some numbers sound nice. 7% growth in a quarter that finished a few months ago. Big it up as much as possible. That's what politicians do. And yet the shops and restaurants are closed.
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