Biden is favored by 54 percent of likely voters, with Trump favored by 42 percent.
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The demographics of the vote highlight the important changes between the 2016 election and this year’s contest. Biden holds a 23-point advantage among female likely voters (59 percent to 36 percent), while Trump and Biden split men, 48 percent each. If those figures hold, both would represent a shift from 2016, when men backed Trump by 11 points and women favored Hillary Clinton by 13 points.
Trump leads by 26 points among White voters without four-year college degrees, which is smaller than his 36-point advantage in 2016, according to a Pew survey of confirmed voters. Biden holds a 31-point lead with White college graduates, which is much better than Clinton’s performance among this group. (Estimates range from plus-17 in Pew data to essentially even in other sources.)
Preferences among independent voters appear to have shifted considerably compared with 2016, with independent voters favoring Biden by 52 percent to 40 percent. By contrast, Trump beat Clinton among self-identified independent voters by four points, according to 2016 network exit polls.
The gender gap is hugely evident in the suburbs, which both campaigns have targeted. Suburban women favor Biden by 62 percent to 34 percent; suburban men lean toward Trump, with 54 percent supporting his reelection, while 43 percent back Biden. Overall, that gives Biden a slight 53 percent to 44 percent edge among all suburban voters.
Another group of closely watched voters this year are those 65 and older. The new poll finds Trump and Biden splitting those voters evenly (Biden 49 percent, Trump 48 percent). Last month, Biden edged Trump 52 percent to 47 percent, although the difference between then and now is not statistically significant. Trump won older voters in 2016 by between seven and nine points.
Amid his frequent and false criticisms of mail-in voting, the president has refused to pledge a peaceful transfer of power, should he lose the election. Overwhelmingly, Americans say they are prepared to accept the results, though Biden supporters are slightly more likely to say they are prepared to accept the results than Trump supporters (83 percent vs. 74 percent). Among Trump supporters, 15 percent say they are not prepared to accept the results as legitimate, while 7 percent volunteered that it “depends.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-post-abc-presidential/2020/10/10/303b2230-0b1d-11eb-859b-f9c27abe638d_story.html
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