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Re: UK COVID second wave new cases revised

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 05 Oct 20 10:19 AM | 24 view(s)
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Msg. 39039 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 39038 by Cactus Flower)

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That Europe would have a less lethal strain second time around would be consistent with the outcomes in many countries which didn't have it badly in the first place. And it would be good news for countries badly affected, such as in the Americas, that a second wave won't be quite so bad.

Hope I'm right, although there may be better explanations.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
UK COVID second wave new cases revised
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Mon, 05 Oct 20 9:04 AM
Msg. 39038 of 54959

Curve for new cases is now like France and Spain. Much higher volume.

Higher cases. Still same (few) deaths. So the ratio of deaths to cases has declined even further.

The first wave was scarier. Not that the second wave isn't a bad thing. But definitely appears less of a threat than the first wave in which people who were tested and formally diagnosed had a 10-15% chance of death in the UK.

If this continues, the second wave is a lot closer to the flu, mortalitywise.

I don't think it's that treatments are that much better. Otherwise Latin Americans wouldn't be dying in large numbers.

It looks more like an evolution in the virus thing to me. The virus strains that thrive are those which don't kill the host (and themselves in the process) but use them as a transmission springboard. Seems like that's a more efficient predatory behaviour.


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