There are three groups of people who will vote for Trump: those who supported Trump in 2016, those who have come to support Trump, and those who are so frightened of Biden and the Democrats that they'll do anything to see Trump win. This has the potential to be a sizable voting bloc, one that may give Trump more than the 30 states he won in 2016.
Don Surber (whose blog you should be reading) is predicting that Trump will not only win the 30 states he won in 2016, but will add another seven. I'm beginning to think Don is on to something.
Don's starting point is that, subject to a vanishingly small number of exceptions, those people who supported Trump in 2016 still support him. That means he'll get 63 million or so votes at a minimum. That's a good start.
Next, add the people who have grown to appreciate Trump. Until the Democrats used the Wuhan virus to shut down the economy, Trump had presided over an extraordinary economic boom, one that benefited all Americans. In an op-ed for CNN that must have terrified Democrats, Rich Thau, who runs the Swing Voter Project, wrote about the normal, fairly apolitical, people who benefited from the Trump boom. The majority of these swing voters, he said, want Trump:
[E]ach month for the past 17 months, I've had a unique window into the Americans largely responsible for giving the president his slim Electoral College victory: so-called "Obama-Trump" swing voters across the upper Midwest.
Our Swing Voter Project has uncovered that many of these people, who live in places such as Canton, Ohio; Davenport, Iowa; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Macomb County, Michigan, prefer Trump over Biden. In fact, 22 of 33 respondents in these four most recent locations feel this way.
And over the first year of the project, from March 2019 through February 2020, more than two-thirds of the "Obama-Trump" voters said they would take Trump over Obama in a hypothetical match-up.
[snip]
They think a businessman is best suited to turn the country around economically. They feel Covid-19 was not Trump's fault, and he's doing the best he can to contain it.
For these voters, it's not just about money. In 2020, Democrats have indulged in the ultimate self-destructive temper tantrum. Swing voters, says Thau, have watched the Democrats' over-the-top response to the virus, seen how their foot soldiers have wrought a path of destruction across America, and noticed how their politicians and "elite" have encouraged the chaos and violence:
They conflate the Black Lives Matter protesters with the rioters attacking federal buildings and retail shops. They don't want historic monuments torn down. And they dismiss defunding the police as ridiculous.
These voters tell me they want America finally to be put first; they oppose immigration and trade policies they say give benefits to foreigners at their expense. And they want a non-politician who relentlessly fights back, after witnessing too many office holders fold in the face of special interests.
The last group of probable Trump voters consists of conservatives who despise Trump almost as much as Democrats do. I'm talking about not the grifters of the Lincoln Project, but real conservatives. Bernard Goldberg speaks for those conservatives.
Goldberg acknowledges that he intensely dislikes everything about Trump's personality and style. Nevertheless, he says, "I hope he wins re-election in a landslide." Goldberg is an "anything but Biden" voter, and Trump is that "anything":
Actually what I mean is that I hope the Republican candidate beats the Democratic candidate. And I wish the Republican candidate were almost anybody else. But since "almost anybody else" isn't running, I hope Joe Biden loses more than I'm actively rooting for Donald Trump to win. If that's akin to a distinction without a difference . . . so be it.
Goldberg explains just how dangerous Biden and the new, hard-left Democrats are to America, so his article is a good read.
At this point, even if Biden were to announce that Michelle Obama will be his vice president, I don't think that would sway these voters. Even if they have a residual fondness for her, the Democrat party that trails in her wake has gone too far ever to be forgiven.
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