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Showing Strength With White Voters, Biden Builds Lead in Battleground States
A nine-point advantage across six key states, including leads of at least six points in each of them.
Mr. Biden would win the presidency with at least 333 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed, if he won all six of the states surveyed and held those won by Hillary Clinton four years ago. Most combinations of any three of the six states — which include Florida, Arizona and North Carolina — would suffice.
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Mr. Biden, by contrast, has emerged from a contested primary with a unified Democratic coalition. He wins 93 percent of the voters who backed Mrs. Clinton four years ago, as well as 92 percent of self-identified Democrats. Mr. Biden also enjoys a significant advantage among those who voted for neither Mr. Trump nor Mrs. Clinton in 2016. He has a 35-point lead among battleground voters who said they backed a minor-party candidate or wrote in another.
Together, these shifts give Mr. Biden a six-point lead among voters who participated in the 2016 election, according to voter-file records. The same voters said they backed Mr. Trump over Mrs. Clinton in 2016 by 2.5 percentage points, slightly better for Mr. Trump than the actual result of the six states, offering a level of validity to the survey’s findings. Mr. Biden also has a 17-point lead among registered voters who did not vote in the 2016 race.
Mr. Trump’s once-decisive advantage among white voters has all but vanished, despite national attention to the kind of racial issues that many analysts believed propelled his strength among white voters in the first place. If attitudes about race were vital to Mr. Trump’s appeal with white voters, then a foundation of his strength has been badly shaken.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
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