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Re: New Stanford Study Suggests Covid-19 Is No More Deadly Than The Typical Flu 

By: Decomposed in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (1)
Fri, 22 May 20 3:01 PM | 42 view(s)
Boardmark this board | 6th Edition Pope Board 		Msg. 00416 of 60014
(This msg. is a reply to 00410 by capt_nemo)
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Nemo:

Re: "Spunky monkeys LOL,,,,,,,,,, What a creation they have made......"Yet, on a cruise ship with 712 cases, 1.83 percent died despite early detection and the best of care, with another 4 still in serious/critical condition three months after falling ill. If those last 4 die - which is pretty likely after so much time unless the data is in error - the IFR will increase to 2.39 percent. That puts the IFR on the Diamond Princess somewhere between 36 and 48 times that of seasonal Influenza.

However, the average age on the Diamond Princess was 58. That, along with the near absence of young people, inflates the death count substantially. We know that few young people die from COVID-19. In the United States, about 80 percent of the population (4 people out of 5) are age 57 or younger. If we assume that no one in that group dies, then the IFR for the U.S. general population could be 20 percent of what it was on the Diamond Princess, or 0.37 percent to 0.48 percent, which is still 7 to 10 times that of the flu (.05 percent).

It won't be, though. There are several factors that come into play: Medical care of COVID-19 patients has improved since February. We've learned to put patients diagnosed early onto hydroxychloroquine, to have them lie on their stomachs, to treat ventilation as a last resort, etc. BUT, most COVID-19 sufferers don't get treated as early and supervised as closely as those on the Diamond Princess were. And, a considerable number under age 58 WILL die. For my rough calculations, I've pretended that they won't.

In the absence of any new treatments, I think the IFR will ultimately come in above 1 percent.

The IFR is getting too much attention, though. What should concern us is that the disease isn't going away naturally... not yet, anyway... and nearly everyone will catch it if it isn't eradicated. It could kill several million of us and damage many more.








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Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months


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The above is a reply to the following message:
New Stanford Study Suggests Covid-19 Is No More Deadly Than The Typical Flu
By: capt_nemo in 6TH POPE
Fri, 22 May 20 7:35 AM 		Msg. 00410 of 60014

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