And that 233,000 in the Wharton study is just within the next two months, on top of an additional 50k they are projecting using the current isolation model over the same period. 350k total (233+50+67). They don't seem to say what happens after June, but it won't magically stop on June 30.
The University of Washington one is the shifting optimistic goalposts study that Birx was using, if I remember correctly. Those are simply optimistic forecasts. Not useful except if you want to reopen the economy and pretend nothing bad will happen.
The Wharton people are right to suggest there are trade-offs. But to make sensible judgements demands you know what the issues are. It isn't obvious that inviting a pandemic to multiply will be good for the economy. In fact, rather the opposite. For me, the race is to buy time for the delivery of protections of various kinds.
| 