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Re: Revising my best case range

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sun, 03 May 20 7:12 AM | 20 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 35998 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 35983 by Cactus Flower)
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Given the woeful decision-making, then my optimistic figures look very optimistic. At any rate, my non-rosy expectation of mortality in the first wave is 100k+.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Revising my best case range
By: Cactus Flower in ALEA
Sat, 02 May 20 5:19 PM 		Msg. 35983 of 54959

I think I had my best case US coronavirus mortality range as 75-90k. I am going to have to change that to 85-100k. It's not slowing down as fast as I hoped.

The new drug may slow things a bit. But at 65k total and 2k per day, it's hard not to expect the total to reach 85k in May.

Still trying to figure what is going on with the UK numbers, which look like New York's.

Why are some regions worse affected than others? Compare Greece and Italy as well. Greece is hardly affected. Italy a disaster.

Population density? Pollution?

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