was that they expected the curve to be bell-like. I interpreted that, I think correctly, as indicating that the government scientists expected a spring decline and a summer break from the pandemic.
From latest comments about the models, and looking at what is going on everywhere, the top of the curve isn't bell-like. It's more of a plateau and it takes a long time to come down from it. Spain and Italy are around two weeks ahead of the UK and the US, so we can see what the future holds.
The UK hoped there would be 20,000 deaths give or take. I think that's at least 10,000 too low.
The US hoped for 50-60,000. I suspect that 75-90k is probably the most optimistic one might reasonably be now, assuming states don't give up with mitigation strategies.
It is a hell of a nasty, infectious and unforgiving virus. Disregarding the comments of the crazy president, I hope the professional, non-political folks behind the scenes are getting a grip on this thing in the US. And that the sensible group of governors continue to do a good job.
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