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Re: The end of coronavirus will look a bit like the end of WWII

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Fri, 17 Apr 20 2:28 PM | 25 view(s)
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Msg. 35664 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 35661 by clo)

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All understood and expected.

But wait for the figures for everyone else. A US economy shedding 20m+ jobs in a month is a plane on fire. If China loses 5% in the first quarter and then starts recovering and the US 30% over the second and third quarters before it starts recovering, China becomes the big economy.

The point is our economies are decimated, and unlike China, our contagion curves are designed to go on for a while. China has nearly got rid of the virus and appears to be back up and running.

Who ends up winning the economic race? The country willing to do the heaviest isolation hardship upfront.

There is a different factor in play: nations may decide that they need to repatriate manufacturing in many industries, because it turns out a country is very vulnerable to a highly infectious pandemic. So maybe the use of domestic manufacturing plants employing robots will increase. That would damage China. But they are ahead of us right now. Which is worrying.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: The end of coronavirus will look a bit like the end of WWII
By: clo
in ALEA
Fri, 17 Apr 20 2:07 PM
Msg. 35661 of 54959

China’s nearly half-century-long run of economic growth has ended amid the pandemic, making clear how hard it will be to restart the global economy.
Thursday, April 16, 2020 10:04 PM EST

Chinese officials on Friday said that the world’s second-largest economy had shrunk in the first three months of the year, ending a streak of untrammeled growth that survived the Tiananmen Square crackdown, the SARS epidemic and even the global financial crisis. The data reflects China’s dramatic efforts to stamp out the coronavirus, which included shutting down most factories and offices in January and February as the outbreak sickened tens of thousands of people.

Read the latest
http://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/business/china-coronavirus-economy.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20200416&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline®i_id=16112385&segment_id=25357&user_id=75ee940ebe2fd3e9d0a6bb93cf283302


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